DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets

Goal
The seminar intends to provide a platform for discussing current research in the field of macroeconomics, financial markets, and applied econometrics. The public is invited to attend. Please contact the coordinators if you want to be put on
the mailing list.

Time
Wednesday, 12.00-13.15 (Brown Bag)

Place
DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58
Gustav Schmoller Room (1.2.026)
(Note that the room can be subject to change.)

Hosts
Kerstin Bernoth, Ferdinand Fichtner, Lukas Menkhoff, Mathias Trabandt

Coordinators
Niels Aka, Jakob Miethe



Summer 2016

DatumVortragender/ InstitutTitel
20.04.2016
Friedensburg

Michael Wolf, Universität Zürich

Bootstrap Joint Prediction Regions
27.04.2016

Renatas Kizys, University of Portsmouth

Nominal and Real Stochastic Convergence of the BRICS Economies
04.05.2016

Alfred Guender, University of Canterbury

An Appraisal of Taylor Rules in an Open Economy
Paper | PDF, 1.07 MB
11.05.2016

Florian Heider, European Central Bank

Optimal Margins and Equilibrium Prices
18.05.2016

Roy Kouwenberg, Mahidol University

Currency Wars: Who Gains from the Battle?
25.05.2016

Till van Treeck, Universität Duisburg-Essen

Income inequality and macroeconomic instability
01.06.2016
Schumpeter

Lawrence Christiano, Northwestern University

Does the New Keynesian Model Have a Uniqueness Problem?
Paper | PDF, 487.93 KB
08.06.2016
Pigou

Cancelled

TBA
15.06.2016

Leo Kaas, Universität Konstanz

Firm dynamics with frictional product and labor markets
22.06.2016

Refet Gürkaynak, Bilkent University

Forward Guidance and Asset Prices
29.06.2016

No Seminar: GC Summer Workshop

TBA
06.07.2016

Nauro Campos, Brunel University London

Estimating the Benefits of European Integration
13.07.2016

Christina Gathmann, Universität Heidelberg

Spillover Effects from Mass Layoffs
20.07.2016

Minxian Yang, University of New South Wales

The risk-return relationship: evidence from index return and realised variance series
Paper | PDF, 0.79 MB
17.08.2016

Christoffer Koch, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Why Are Big Banks Getting Bigger?
Paper | PDF, 0.67 MB

Winter 2015/16

DatumVortragender/ InstitutTitel
21.10.2015

Luca Fornaro, CREI/Pompeu Fabra

Stagnation Traps
28.10.2015Michael Funke, University of HamburgAssessing the CNH-CNY Pricing Differential: Role of Fundamentals, Contagion and Policy
04.11.2015

Hans-Martin Krolzig, University of Kent

The Macroeconomic Effects of US Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Parsimonious Structural Vector Equilibrium Correction Approach
Papers | PDF, 0.7 MB
11.11.2015

Pablo Winant, Bank of England

Optimal FX Intervention in the Face of Capital Outflows
18.11.2015

Felix Noth, Halle Institute for Economic Research/University of Magdeburg

Banking Globalization, Local Lending and Labor Market Outcomes: Micro-level Evidence from Brazil
25.11.2015
Pigou (1.2.027)

Emanuel Gasteiger, Free University of Berlin

(Un-)Conventional Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Performance around the World
02.12.2015

Morten Ravn, University College London

(S)Cars and the Great Recession
09.12.2015Klaus Adam, University of MannheimCan a Financial Transaction Tax Prevent Stock Price Booms?
Paper | PDF, 349.83 KB
16.12.2015

Raffaella Giacomini, University College London

Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates
13.01.2016

Michele Lenza, European Central Bank

How Big is the Output Gap in the Euro Area? Inflation Will Tell!
Paper | PDF, 0.64 MB
20.01.2016

Johannes Pfeifer, University of Mannheim

Does Austerity Pay Off?
27.01.2016

Cancelled

TBA
03.02.2016

Ulrich Bindseil, European Central Bank

Asset Liquidity, Central Bank Collateral, and Stable Bank Funding
10.02.2016
Schumpeter

Hélène Rey, London Business School

World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle

Summer 2015

Date Time Room Speaker Affiliation Title
15th Apr 12-13.15 Schmoller Christian Bayer University of Bonn Dynamics of Factor Productivity Dispersions
22nd Apr 12-13.15 Dulles Alexander Guembel Toulouse School of Economics A Welfare Analysis of Fragmented Liquidity Markets
29th Apr 12-13.15 Friedensburg Roland Straub European Central Bank Capital-Flow Management Measures: What Are They Good For? | PDF, 0.59 MB
6th May 12-13.15 Schumpeter Fabio Canova European University Institute The  Domestic and  International  Effects of Financial Disturbances | PDF, 1.09 MB
13th May 12-13.15 Schmoller Tom Krebs University of Mannheim  Labor Market Institutions and the Cost of Recessions | PDF, 299.11 KB
20th May 12-13.15 Schmoller Eva Schliephake University of Bonn Subsidizing Banking Instability | PDF, 431.45 KB
27th May 12-13.15 Schmoller Andreas Schabert University of Cologne Can Central Bank Asset Purchases Alleviate Credit Frictions? | PDF, 0.62 MB
3rd Jun 12-13.15 Friedensburg Luca Sala Bocconi University Noisy News in Business Cycles | PDF, 0.62 MB
10th Jun 12-13.15 Schmoller Igor Livshits Western University Screening as a Unified Theory of Delinquency, Renegotiation, and Bankruptcy | PDF, 0.8 MB
17th Jun 12-13.15 Schmoller George Milunovich Macquarie University Testing for Identification in SVAR-GARCH Models – Reconsidering the Impact of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rates | PDF, 420.72 KB
24th Jun 12-13.15 Schmoller Michael Koetter Frankfurt School of Finance & Management Monetary Policy Under the Microscope: Intra-bank Transmission of ECB Asset Purchase Programs | PDF, 0.85 MB
8th Jul 12-13.15 Schmoller Esteban Prieto Deutsche Bundesbank Monetary Policy Propagation and Uncertainty
15th Jul 12-13.15 Schmoller Ralf Brüggemann University of Constance Inference in VARs with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form

Winter 2014/15

Date Time Room Speaker Affiliation Title
15th Oct 12-13.30 Schmoller Mathias Hoffman University of Zurich By a Silken Thread: regional banking integration and pathways to financial development in Japan's Great Recession | PDF, 375.98 KB
22nd Oct 12-13.30 Schmoller Oscar Pavlov Queensland University of Technology Product Scope and Economic Fluctuations
29th Oct 12-13.30 Schmoller John Lewis Bank of England Tailwinds from the East: How has the rising share of imports from emerging markets affected import prices?
5th Nov 12-13.30 Schmoller Co-Pierre Georg University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business, Deutsche Bundesbank A Network View on Money Market Freezes
12th Nov 12-13.30 Schmoller Wolfgang Kuhle Max Planck Institute Information Aggregation Through Stock Prices and the Cost of Capital
19th Nov 12-13.30 Schmoller Stefan Niemann University of Essex Fiscal policy, creditor composition and sovereign default
26th Nov 12-13.30 Schmoller Markku Lanne University of Helsinki Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns
3rd Dec 12-13.30 Schmoller Christoph Bertsch Sveriges Riksbank A wake-up call theory of contagion
10th Dec 12-13.30 Schmoller Emanuele Bacchiocchi University of Milan Identification in Structural Vector
Autoregressive models with structural changes, with an application to
U.S. monetary policy
| PDF, 391.15 KB
17th Dec 12-13.30 Schmoller Wouter den Haan London School of Economics Unemployment (fears), precautionary savings and aggregate demand
7th Jan 12-13.30 Schmoller Hendrik Hakenes University of Bonn Separating trading and banking: consequences for financial stability
14th Jan 12-13.30 Schmoller Ludger Linnemann TU Dortmund University Productivity, markups, and the aggregate gross output production function
21th Jan 12-13.30 Schmoller Niels Haldrup Aarhus University

Discriminating between fractional integration and spurious long memory

28th Jan 12-13.30 Friedensburg Philipp Engler Free University Berlin Progressive Taxation and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union
4th Feb 12-13.30 Schmoller Massimiliano Marcellino Bocconi University Structural Analysis with Classical and Bayesian Large Reduced Rank VARs
11th Feb 12-13.30 Schmoller Helmut Herwartz University of Göttingen Structural modelling with independent innovations

Summer 2014

Date Time Room Speaker Affiliation Title
24th Mar 15-16.00  Schmoller Mathias Trabandt Federal Reserve Bank Understanding the Great Recession | PDF, 1.02 MB
16th Apr 12-13.30 Schmoller  Giovanni Ricco London Business School A New Identification Of Fiscal Shocks Based On The Information Flow | PDF, 0.82 MB (preliminary version)
23th Apr 12-13.30 Pigou Gerhard Illing LMU Munich Forward Guidance in a Simple Model with a Zero Lower Bound
30th Apr 12-13.30 Pigou Michael Ehrmann Bank of Canada Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations | PDF, 0.62 MB
7th May 12-13.30 Pigou Neeltje van Horen De Nederlandsche Bank When arm's lenght is too far. Relationship banking over the business cycle | PDF, 1.13 MB
14th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Paulo Rodrigues Banco de Portugal Persistence in the Banking Industry: Fractional integration and breaks in memory | PDF, 0.73 MB
21th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Jean-Marie Dufour McGill University Practical methods for modelling weak VARMA processes: identification, estimation and specification with a macroeconomic application | PDF, 308.33 KB
28th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Boriss Siliverstovs KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich The KOF Economic Barometer, Version 2014: A Composite Leading Indicator for the Swiss Business Cycle
4th Jun 12-13.30 Schmoller Tommaso Proietti University of Rome

Generalised Linear Cepstral Models for the Spectrum of a Time Series | PDF, 226.09 KB

11th Jun 12-13.30 Schmoller Fabian Eser European Central Bank Assessing asset purchases within the ECB's Securities Markets Programme
18th Jun 12-13.30 Schmoller Andreas Pick Erasmus University of Rotterdam  

Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models and the effect of uncertain break dates | PDF, 0.82 MB

25th Jun 12-13.30 Pigou Lutz Kilian University of Michigan Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?
1st Jul 15-16.30 Pigou

Robert Kollmann

and Werner Roeger

Université Libre de Bruxelles What Drives the German Current Account? And How Does it Affect Other EU Member States?
9th Jul 12-13.30 Schmoller  Makram El-Shagi IWH / California State University A Counterfactual Analysis of Real Effective Exchange Rates During the Euro Era
16th Jul 12-13.30 Schmoller Almuth Scholl University of Konstanz Sovereign Debt Crises and Political Turnovers

Winter 2013/14

DateTimeRoomSpeakerAffiliationTitle
Sept  25th 12-13.30 Schmoller Katheryn Russ University of California, Davis Understanding Markups in the Open Economy
Oct 2nd 13.30-15 Dulles Kartik Anand (cancelled) Bank of Canada The Safety of Government Bonds
Oct      9th 12-13.30 Pigou Alexander Meyer-Gohde Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Generalized Model Uncertainty and Production-Based Asset Pricing
Oct
16th
12-13.30 Schmoller Juan J. Dolado Universidad Carlos III de Madrid The Effects of Global Shocks on Small Commodity-Exporting Economies: Lessons from Canada
Oct
23th
12-13.30 Dulles --- --- ---
Oct
30th
12-13.30  Schmoller Tijmen R. Dani¸ls De Nederlandsche Bank Funding Risk and the Increase in Collateralized Lending
Nov
6th
12-13.30  Schmoller  Reto Föllmi Universität St. Gallen Globalization and Productivity in the Developing World
Nov
13th
12-13.30  Schmoller Rolf Scheufele Schweizerische Nationalbank Business Tendency Surveys and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Nov
20th
12-13.30  Pigou Philipp Engler Freie Universität Berlin Fiscal Devaluation in a Monetary Union
Nov
27th
12-13.30  Schmoller Luca Fanelli University of Bologna Frequentist evaluation of small DSGE models
Dec
4th
12-13.30  Schmoller Tomasz Wozniak University of Melbourne Variational Bayes Methods for Large Vector Autoregressions
Dec
11th
12-13.30  Schmoller Beatriz de Blas Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Optimal state-contingent public-sector prices in a currency union
Dec
18th
12-13.30  Schmoller Vladimir Kuzin Deutsche Bundesbank The Mittelstand Miracle: A Decade of Growth without Credit?
 -- Christmas break --
Jan
8th
12-13.30 Schmoller Timo Teräsvirta CREATES Aarhus Specification, Estimation and Evaluation of Vector Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models with Applications
Jan
15th
12-13.30  Schmoller Gebhard Kirchgässner Universität St. Gallen Information and/or Ideology?
On the Political Economy of Scientific Policy Advice
Jan
22nd
12-13.30  Schmoller Ulrike Neyer Universität Düsseldorf Monetary Policy, Frictions in the Interbank Market and Aggregate Loan Supply
Jan
29th
12-13.30  Schmoller Cédric Tille The Graduate Institute Geneva Currency Crises in Reverse: Do Large Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?
Feb
5th
12-13.30  Schmoller Christoph Trebesch LMU München ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds
Feb
12th
12-13.30  Schmoller  Sören Radde European Central Bank (ECB) Government bond liquidity and sovereign-bank interlinkages

Summer 2013

Date Time Room Speaker Affiliation Title
10th Apr 12-13.30  Pigou Michael Evers Universität Bonn Solving nonlinear rational expectations models by approximating the stochastic equilibrium system
17th Apr 12-13.30 Schmoller  Sandra Eickmeier Deutsche Bundesbank Time variation in macro-financial linkages
24th Apr 12-13.30 Schmoller Wei Cui Princeton University Search-based endogenous liquidity
1st May  --  --  --  --  --
8th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Beatrice Farkas DIW Berlin Appropriate technology, human capital, and development accounting
15th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Lutz Kilian University of Michigan Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models
22th May 12-13.30 Schmoller Lukas Menkhoff Universität Hannover Currency risk premia and macro fundamentals
29th May 12-13.30 Friedensburg Katarina Juselius University of Copenhagen Balance sheet recessions and time-varying coefficients in a Phillips curve relationship: An application to Finnish data
5th June 12-13.30 Pigou Christian von Weizsäcker MPI for Research on Collective Goods The end of capital scarcity: macro-economic consequences
12th Jun Begrüßungsvortrag für Bundesbank-Gastprofessor Dirk Krüger (University of Pennsylvania) 12-14h an der FU Berlin (Link)
19th Jun Gastvortrag des neuen DIW Präsidenten Marcel Fratzscher um 17:15 Uhr an der FU Berlin (Link)
26th Jun No presentation due to the GC-Workshop
3rd Jul 12-13.30 Schmoller Harald Uhlig University of Chicago Measuring the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks: a bayesian FAVAR approach with sign restriction | PDF, 2.18 MB
       Gastbeitrag von Harald Uhlig in der FAZ: Eine Lektion zur Europäischen Zentralbank
10th Jul 12-13.30 Schmoller Christoph Görtz University of Birmingham Sector Specific News Shocks in Aggregate and Sectoral Fluctuations

Winter 2012/13

 Date Time Room Speaker Institute Title
Oct 17th  12-13.30  Schmoller Søren Johansen University of Copenhagen Likelihood inference for a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model
Oct 31st  12-13.30  Schmoller Anna Staszewska-Bystrova Universität Lodz A simple method for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions
Nov 7th  12-13.30  Friedensburg Florian Buck LMU München The regulator's trade-off: Bank supervision vs. minimum capital
Nov 21st  12-13.30  Schmoller Pentti Saikkonen University of Helsinki A Gaussian mixture autoregressive model for univariate time series
Nov 28th  12-13.30  Schmoller Wilko Bolt De Nederlandsche Bank A frontier measure of US banking competition
Dec 5th  12-13.30  Schmoller Jin Cao Norges Bank Central banking and financial stability
 -- Christmas break --
Jan 9th  13.30-15.00  Schmoller Katharina Pijnenburg DIW Berlin The spatial dimension of U.S. house price developments
Jan 16th  12-13.30  Schmoller Jörg Breitung Universität Bonn Forecasting inflation rates using daily data: A nonparametric MIDAS approach
Jan 23rd  12-13.30  Schmoller Peter Tillmann Universität Giessen The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach
Jan 30th  12-13.30  Schmoller Gernot Müller Universität Bonn Can fiscal austerity be self-defeating?
Feb 6th  12-13.30  Schmoller Adam Gulan Bank of Finland Interest rates and business cycles in emerging economies: The role of financial frictions
Feb 13th  12-13.30  Schmoller Markku Lanne University of Helsinki Testing for linear and nonlinear predictability of stock returns

Summer 2012

Date Time RoomSpeaker                InstituteTitle
April 12th  10.15-11.45 Dulles Oscar Jorda UC Davis When credit bites back: Leverage, business cycles, and crises
April 26th  12.15-13.45 4.3.014 Kerstin Bernoth DIW Berlin Futures premium regressions and a latent factor day by day
May  3rd  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Philipp König TU Berlin Target2 and the European sovereign debt crisis
June 7th  12.15-13.45 Pigou Imke Brüggemann-Borck DIW Berlin IMM - Internationales Makroökonomisches Modell
June 14th  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Boriss Siliverstovs KOF ETH Keeping a finger on the pulse of the economy: Nowcasting Swiss GDP in real-time squared
June 22nd  12.15-13.45 Pigou Christoph Thoenissen Victoria University of Wellington Financial frictions and the role of investment specific technology shocks in the business cycle
July 5th  13.15-14.45 Friedensburg Hendrik Hagedorn DIW Berlin An agent-based model of Austrian economics
July 19th  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Christoffer Koch Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Quantifying the effects of deposit deregulation on monetary policy transmission on credit: Bank level evidence from half a century

Winter 2011/12

Date Time RoomSpeaker                InstituteTitle
18.10  15.00-16.30 Friedensburg Paul Viefers DIW Berlin Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model
02.11  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Julian Schumacher Hertie School of Governance Sovereign Risk and Secondary Market Liquidity
16.11  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Marlene Karl DIW Berlin The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from US Commercial Banks
23.11  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Christoph Große Steffen DIW Berlin Business Cycles and Financial Intermediation in Emerging Economies
30.11  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Sören Radde DIW Berlin Liquidity, Banking, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
14.12  13.15-14.45 Friedensburg Hendrik Hagedorn DIW Berlin An Agent-Based and Accounting-Based Approach to Austrian Macroeconomics
-----------------------------------------      Christmas holidays      -----------------------------------------------
19.01  13.00-14.30 Schumpeter John Lewis Bank of England How have market views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens influenced monetary authorities' credibility?
01.03  12.15-13.45 Friedensburg Svetlana Ledyaeva Aalto University School of Economics Round-trip versus genuine foreign investment in Russia