DIW Roundup

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The use of financial market variables in forecasting
15.11.2017, Stefan Gebauer
Roundup 115

Financial market indicators can provide valuable information for forecasting macroeconomic developments. In response to the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, the role of financial variables for forecasting has been revisited, and new empirical and theoretical forecasting methods able to explicitly incorporate financial market information have been developed. This roundup discusses characteristics of financial variable movements and the relation to business cycles. It furthermore summarizes some of the new theoretical and empirical approaches at hand for forecasting macroeconomic variables (...)




The Inflation Targeting Debate
09.01.2017, Malte Rieth
Roundup 107

Inflation targeting has become one of the most prominent monetary regimes around the globe. Proponents argue that it reduces the dynamic inconsistency problem of monetary policy and thereby stabilises prices, which in turn promotes growth. Opponents, on the other hand, say that by focusing on price stability inflation targeting neglects other important policy objectives, such as financial stability, and thereby contributed to the built up of the global financial crisis. This roundup summarises the arguments made in the debate. It concludes that no consensus has emerged in the empirical (...)




Corporate taxation, leverage, and macroeconomic stability
12.04.2016, Franziska Bremus
Roundup 93

A key challenge for economic policy today is to make the financial system more resilient. The literature finds that high indebtedness (or: leverage), both in the financial and in the real sectors, is a danger to macroeconomic stability and growth. Moreover, the design of the corporate tax system is an important determinant of leverage: in many countries interest paid on debt is tax-deductible while the return on equity is not, such that tax systems incentivize debt-type financing and, hence, leveraging. This article summarizes the debate about the implications of corporate taxation for (...)




Economic effects of uncertainty
07.04.2016, Michele Piffer
Roundup 92

This Roundup discusses the literature on the effects of uncertainty on economic activity. Uncertainty will be generally referred to as the agents’ inability to form clear expectations about the future path of relevant economic variables. After motivating the analysis from a policy perspective, the Roundup outlines the key channels through which uncertainty exerts an impact on the economy. It then discusses in an intuitive manner the challenges in empirically estimating such effect, and the recent developments in the literature.




Produktivitätswachstum, Investitionen und säkulare Stagnation
16.11.2015, Guido Baldi
Roundup 83

Die entwickelten Volkswirtschaften erholen sich nur schleppend von der Finanzkrise. Unter dem Eindruck dieser jüngsten Entwicklungen wird verschiedentlich darauf hingewiesen, dass sich das Wirtschaftswachstum pro Kopf in vielen entwickelten Volkswirtschaften bereits seit den 1980er Jahren verlangsamt hat. Untersuchungen deuten darauf hin, dass dieser Rückgang zu einem bedeutenden Teil auf ein geringes Wachstum der Produktivität zurückzuführen ist. Die Produktionsfaktoren wie Arbeit und Kapital werden zwar laufend produktiver eingesetzt – die Zuwächse sind (...)




Population Ageing and Its Effects on the German Economy
22.09.2015, Dirk Ulbricht
Roundup 78

The latest long-term projection of Germany’s population implies a clear trend: even though slight growth is expected over the next decade, a decline in the future is almost inevitable. Furthermore, an ageing society combined with a low fertility rate will lead to massive shrinkage of the working-age population. What are the social and economic consequences of these developments? Is a decline in economic growth unavoidable? We present the results of the long-term population projection and summarize the various effects population ageing may have on Germany.




Ausländische Direktinvestitionen und Wirtschaftswachstum
02.07.2015, Guido Baldi, Jakob Miethe
Roundup 71

Verschiedentlich wird zurzeit angeregt, Anreize für höhere ausländische Direktinvestitionen in die Länder des Euroraums zu setzen – vor allem auch zwischen den einzelnen Mitgliedsländern. Dies soll unter anderem dazu beitragen, das Wirtschaftswachstum im Euroraum zu beleben. Vor diesem Hintergrund gibt dieser Beitrag einen Überblick der umfangreichen – aber auch heterogenen – wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Einfluss von Direktinvestitionen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum. Alles in allem deuten die Ergebnisse der bestehenden Studien darauf hin, dass (...)




Is there a bubble in the German housing market?
19.01.2015, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Claus Michelsen, Dirk Ulbricht
Roundup 53

After a period of stagnation that lasted for almost two decades, German house prices began to grow at an accelerated pace since late 2010. Real house prices that even had been declining in 2000-2008 started to climb up steeply from the second half of 2010, followed by a recovery of construction activities. This development raised concerns about the formation of a speculative house price bubble among German policy makers and central bankers. However, empirical evidence of a misalignment of house prices from their fundamentals is mixed.




Die neue Wachstumsdebatte
13.05.2014, Guido Baldi
Roundup 18

Die Volkswirtschaften Europas und der Vereinigten Staaten erholen sich nur langsam von der weltweiten Finanzkrise und der Schuldenkrise im Euroraum. Wie hoch wird das Wirtschaftswachstum in den kommenden Jahren ausfallen? Werden die entwickelten Volkswirtschaften in einem hohen Maße Innovationen und Produktivitätswachstum erleben oder droht eine längere Phase der Stagnation? Namhafte Ökonomen haben hierzu eine Debatte angestoßen.


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