Project

The effects of conflict on civilians due to death, serious injury, or other direct and indirect outcomes are immense. The objective of this research project is to estimate the global economic costs of mass violent conflict that is the measurable worldwide impact of conflict, and to provide estimates both at the country level and across time. In doing so, the project analyses different socioeconomic transmission mechanisms by which conflict affects economic outcomes, both in the short and long-run.

In this project, we emphasize the consequences of armed violent conflicts on all key physical needs for human life, expressed in monetary terms. In practice, this means our analysis focuses on indicators such as GDP to measure economic costs. This is an inclusive research strategy, as indirect effects of conflict, through its influence on e.g. education and investment, can also be conveniently expressed that way. Furthermore, it is important to consider the impact of conflict in foregone prosperity in both conflict countries as well as neighbouring countries that are affected by spillovers. A final mechanism that we will be highlighting is the fact that the consequences of conflict do not stop with a ceasefire. Indeed, the post-war effects on growth in countries affected by conflict should be, and will be, included as well. As such, we will analyse a wide range of channels through which the costs of conflict accumulate.

Transparent and concrete estimates of the impact of conflict on economic outcomes will draw attention to the opportunity costs of violent conflict and will strengthen the case for early and effective interventions. The findings of the project will also help to differentiate the channels through which these impacts materialise, so as to derive policies for the core problems of prevention, intervention, reconstruction, and development. This will allow us to recommend better policies for handling and counteracting the negative spiral of violence and underdevelopment produced by conflict.

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper 948 / 2009
"How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict" | PDF, 168.43 KB by Olaf J. de Groot, Tilman Brück, Carlos Bozzoli  

GECC Project Paper 2/2009
"A Methodology for the Calculation of the Global Economic Costs of Conflict" | PDF, 142.9 KB by Olaf J. de Groot

Wochenbericht des DIW Berlin 21 / 2010
" Eine erste Schätzung der wirtschaftlichen Kosten der deutschen Beteiligung am Krieg in Afghanistan"
Tilman Brück, Olaf J. de Groot, Friedrich Schneider

Workshop

On the 1st and 2nd of February a workshop on "The Global Costs of Conflict" brought together around 45 people at DIW Berlin, mostly researchers and other academics, from more than 15 countries to present and discuss their findings and insights on the costs of conflict. The diverse backgrounds of both presenters and discussants, varying from economists and epidemiologists to political scientists and policymakers, made this a very inspiring interdisciplinary workshop. Our aim to come together not only to exchange ideas but also to develop new ones was therefore easily met in discussions on methodological issues, the identification and measurement of costs, and all kinds of different channels through which conflicts accrue costs, directly or indirectly, in the short or long run. The topics varied from theoretical contributions such as what conflicts to include in a global calculation to case and cross-country studies on trade, education, health, welfare, ethnicity, and migration outcomes caused through conflicts.
The great range of topics, approaches, and ideas presented in combination with the good organization and the cooperative and interactive atmosphere made this workshop a great success. 

Please see the programme of the Workshop here | PDF, 32.55 KB .  Please click on the following links to access the papers presented at the workshop:

Session 1: Costs of Conflict

Javier Gardeazabal,  “Methods for Measuring the Costs of Conflict | PDF, 103.47 KB ”
Scott Gates, “Human, Social and Economic Costs of Conflict | PDF, 0.75 MB ”
Laia Balcells, “Consequences of Warfare in Civil Wars: An Empirical Evaluation | PDF, 388.34 KB ” [co-authored by Stathis Kalyvas]

Session 2: Identification and Measurement

Lisa Chauvet, ”The Costs of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty | PDF, 124.34 KB ”
Debby Guha-Sapir, “Estimating Conflict Affected Population: Methodological and Data Issues”

Session 3: Role of Ethnicity in Conflict

Sami Miaari, “Ethnic Conflict and Job Separations | PDF, 0.7 MB ”
Michele Valsecchi, “Ethnic Diversity, Economic Performance and Civil Wars | PDF, 243.7 KB ”

Keynote Speech

Gerald Schneider, “Globalization and Political Violence | PDF, 0.77 MB ”

Session 4A: Trade and Integration

Cosmas Kombat Lambini,  “Forest Conflicts’ Influence on Local People’s Livelihoods: The Case of Conflicts Between Timber Companies and Farmers in the Mankranso District of Ghana | PDF, 0.93 MB ”
Mahvash Saeed Qureshi, “Trade and Thy Neighbour’s War | PDF, 1.17 MB ”
Adama Bah, “Civil Conflicts and Regional Integration Outcomes in Africa | PDF, 210.71 KB ”

Session 4B: Education, Health and Welfare

Christine Valente, “Fetal and Child Health amidst Violent Civil Conflict”
Tushar Nandi, “Conflict, Economic Shock and Child Labour in Palestine | PDF, 107.46 KB ”
Philip Verwimp, “Extended Household Welfare and Civil War: Evidence from Burundi | PDF, 222.11 KB ”
Patrick Domingues, “The Health Consequences of the Mozambican Civil War: An Anthropometric Approach”

Session 5: Conflict Theory

Tilman Brück, “Violent Development”
Ewa Tabeau and Janek Zwierzchowski, “The 1992-95 War in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Census-Based Multiple System Estimation of Casualties’ Undercount” | PDF, 287.08 KB
Magnus Hoffmann, “When the Underdog does not Lead: Endogenous Prize and Leadership in Contests | PDF, 265.2 KB ” [co-authored by Grégoire Grégoire Rota Graziosi]
Jorge Restrepo, “Estimating Life Expectancy Potential Gains and Lost Product by Violence Reduction in Selected Countries | PDF, 0.62 MB ” [co-authored by Brodie Ferguson and Adriana Villamarín]

Session 6: Migration and Conflict

Nathan Fiala, “The Consequences of Forced Displacement in Northern Uganda | PDF, 365.74 KB "
Peter Croll, “The Migration - Security Nexus - Challenges and Opportunities of African Migration to EU countries”
Inmaculada Serrano, “Bringing Actors and Conflict into Forced Migration Literature: A Proposed Model of the Decision to Return | PDF, 332.05 KB ”