Pressemitteilung/Press Release

Press Release of 11 June 2014

Intense Excitement until the Final Whistle - FIFA World Cup Winner More Difficult to Predict this Time Around

photofantastica (Copyright)  Europa Europäisch Länderfahne
Copyright: photofantastica

At the FIFA World Cup 2006, the method of using the market value of the teams ("transfer value") was first proposed as a simple and transparent basis for forecasting the outcome of a major football tournament. Indeed, the countries with players of the highest market value were world champions in 2006 and 2010 (Italy and Spain, respectively), just as the most expensive team won the European Championships in 2008 and 2012 (Spain). The winner of the upcoming World Cup in Brazil can be forecast in the same way, but it is considerably more difficult to predict the result this time around. This is because the top teams are much more evenly matched - in terms of the market value of the whole squad - than in the previous tournaments when the Spanish team was clearly the most expensive one. Consequently, other factors come into play, such as level of fitness, daily form, and chance, as they did in 2006 when the top teams were also very evenly matched.

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DIW Wochenbericht 24/2014 | PDF, 187.58 KB

German Institute for Economic Research

Founded in 1925, DIW Berlin (the German Institute for Economic Research) is one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. The Institute analyzes the economic and social aspects of topical issues, formulating and disseminating policy advice based on its research findings. DIW Berlin is part of both the national and international scientific communities, provides research infrastructure to academics all over the world, and promotes the next generation of scientists. A member of the Leibniz Association, DIW Berlin is independent and primarily publicly funded.

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