Pressemitteilung/Press Release

Press Release of 22 February 2017

The austerity policy was counterproductive in Spain, Portugal, and Italy

Nadezda Hahn (Copyright)  Europäisches Parlament Parlament
Copyright: Nadezda Hahn

DIW study showed: To some extent, drastic savings measures neutralized the effects of structural reform. The countries affected relapsed into recession without having improved their financial picture – a balanced policy mixture would have been better.

The austerity measures and tax increases implemented from 2010 onwards did not reduce sovereign debt in Spain, Portugal and Italy as anticipated. Instead, they were among the forces that drove the three economies back into recession. Contrary to popular opinion, the failure of the consolidation strategy is not the result of a lack of the will to reform on the part of the relevant governments. Actually, the dramatic spending cuts and tax increases prevented the reforms that were implemented from unfolding their full effect. That is the result of a new study by DIW Berlin that examined the effects of the austerity policy in Spain, Portugal, and Italy for the period 2010 to 2014.

According to the study, the enormous private household debt in the three countries played a key role in the policy’s negative impact on growth. In Spain, for example, private households had to pay more to service their debt as the result of stricter financing conditions.  As a result, private household debt fell from 87 percent of GDP in 2007 to 60 percent in 2014. “Private households used a large proportion of their disposable income to pay off outstanding debt and had less money available for consumption,” said author Mathias Klein. “Then the government raised taxes and cut spending, which only amplified the effect. The sharp drop in private consumption reduced GDP and the already high unemployment level rose again.”

Moderate consolidation preferable

The austerity policy also amplified the effects of the recession by reducing long-term output potential. The measures implemented further throttle employment, which is already shrinking in a recession, and create more long-term unemployment. The job market loses key know-how and labor potential diminishes. Austerity measures also amplify the drop in company spending on research and development, which in turn has a negative impact on output potential. “Under conditions like these, economies can only recover very slowly,” said author Philipp Engler. “And the longer the recession, the more the public budget suffers. In such an environment, budget consolidation has no chance of success.” 

The two authors of the study conclude that a balanced mixture of policies such as moderate austerity measures, structural reform, and budget reallocation in favor of investment are preferable to far-reaching budget consolidation.  

Links

Economic Bulletin 8/2017 | PDF, 0.51 MB

Interview | PDF, 0.56 MB with Philipp Engler and Mathias Klein: "A more balanced policy mix would be more successful"

Follow DIW Berlin on Twitter

German Institute for Economic Research

Founded in 1925, DIW Berlin (the German Institute for Economic Research) is one of the leading economic research institutes in Germany. The Institute analyzes the economic and social aspects of topical issues, formulating and disseminating policy advice based on its research findings. DIW Berlin is part of both the national and international scientific communities, provides research infrastructure to academics all over the world, and promotes the next generation of scientists. A member of the Leibniz Association, DIW Berlin is independent and primarily publicly funded.

More press releases you will find here.

Press Office DIW Berlin

//
PhoneMobileE-mail
Renate Bogdanovic+49-30-897 89-249+49-174-319-3131
Claudia Cohnen-Beck+49-30-897 89-252
Sebastian Kollmann+49-30-897 89-250+49-162-105-2159
Mathilde Richter+49-30-897 89-152+49-172-154-0646

Communications Management German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP)

PhoneE-mail
Monika Wimmer+49-30-897 89-251

The re-utilization of image material is not permitted.