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12 July 2017

SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Dynamic binary panel data models in presence of autocorrelation in the error term. A Monte-Carlo study

Dynamic panel data models are often applied to estimate the degree of state dependence. For instance, it has often been shown that there is state dependence in unemployment, i. e. unemployment in present causally increases the probability of unemployment in future. This paper uses Monte-
Carlo simulations to compare several dynamic linear and nonlinear panel data models for binary dependent variables. In particular, we focus on data generating processes where dynamics may stem from true state dependence or from autocorrelation in the error term (which may lead to the measurement of spurious state dependence). We employ estimators which explicitly model both sources of persistence and compare their performance with standard dynamic models. Furthermore, we test how these estimators perform in presence time-varying unobserved variables which follow time trends or which may be described by a moving-average model.

(joint with Thorsten Schank and Constantin Weiser)

Speaker
  • Dr. Alexander Mosthaf (University of Mainz)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    4 July 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Special Brown Bag Seminar: Are Top Shares a Good Measure of Inequality?

    Newly precise evidence of the trajectory of top incomes in the United States and around the world relies on top shares and top-to-bottom ratios, prompting new inquiry into their properties as inequality measures. Current evidence suggests a mathematical link between top shares and the Gini coefficient and empirical links extending as well to the Atkinson measure. The work reported in this paper strengthens that evidence, making several contributions: First, it formalizes the shares and ratios, showing that as monotonic transformations of each other, they are different manifestations of a single underlying inequality measure. Second, it presents a standard form of the underlying inequality measure that satisfies the principle of normalization – ranging from zero to one, with zero representing perfect equality and inequality increasing as the measure goes toward one -- but also finds that, compared to shares and ratios, the standard form is somewhat blunt in depicting changes in inequality. Third, it investigates the measure in mathematically specified probability distributions, showing that it is monotonically related to classical measures, such as the Gini, Atkinson, and Theil measures and the coefficient of variation. Thus, the evidence to date suggests that the family of top shares and top-to-bottom ratios is a genuine inequality measure and a useful all-purpose proxy for other inequality measures. Moreover, this new measure is further distinguished by its ease of calculation and ease of interpretation, making it a widely appealing measure of inequality. This work also provides new insights, for example, that, given nonlinearities in the (monotonic) relations among inequality measures, Spearman correlations are more appropriate than Pearson correlations, and that weakening of correlations – such as between the Gini and Atkinson measures or between the Gini and top shares -- signals differences and shifts in distributional form, themselves signals of income dynamics.

    Speaker
  • Professor Guillermina Jasso, member of the DIW Scientific Advisory Board and former Chair of Sociology at New York University (currently NYU Silver Professor)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Ferdinand-Friedensburg-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 2.3.001 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    28 June 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Interpersonal Perceptions and Interviewer Effects in Face-to-Face Surveys

    It is well known that the presence of an interviewer can affect responses and thereby introduce variance and bias into survey estimates. For instance, some respondents tend to adjust their true answers towards social norms or specific characteristics of the interviewer in order to appear in a good light. When investigating these interviewer effects, survey research mainly focused on interviewer socio-demographics and only a few studies have examined effects of not directly observable characteristics such as interviewer personality, attitudes and beliefs. Moreover, survey research lacks of insights on how interviewers’ and respondents’ interpersonal perceptions of each other affect respondent answers to related questions. For this project, self-reports of 1,184 respondents and 114 interviewers as well as their mutual perceptions of each other were collected in the context of the Socio-Economic Panel Study Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) in 2015/2016. Data collection covered attitudes and opinions towards a variety of political and social issues. This presentation includes results on the impact of interviewer opinions on respondent answers, the nature and accuracy of interpersonal inferences, as well as their impact on respondent self-reports.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    26 to 28 June 2017

    Workshop SOEPcampus@Universität Mannheim 2017

    This year's SOEPcampus@University of Mannheim Workshop "Längsschnittdatenanalyse mit dem Sozio-oekonomischen Panel (SOEP)" will take place from June 26-28 (workshop held in German).

    Registration:
    Please use the online registration form and/or contact Deborah Gottinger-Würtz

    More Information
    Location
    Universität Mannheim
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 321
    23 June 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Retirement and social connection in old age

    Facing an aging population, many societies discuss policies to prolong work lives. At the individual level, such policies could affect social connectedness in several ways. On the one hand, prolonged work lives could promote a healthier social life at advanced ages by maintaining job-related networks for longer. On the other hand, retirement might boost quantity and quality of social networks by an increase in leisure time. This paper sheds light on the net effects of retirement on social wellbeing and the elderly’s social networks with a particular focus on heterogeneity patterns. Using data from SHARE, we analyze whether country, gender, or education are important dimensions of heterogeneity. Potential endogeneity of the individual retirement status is accounted for using an instrumental variables approach. We thereby exploit variation in the individual retirement decision that is induced by pensionable age thresholds. The results suggest that retirement is not an important determinant for social connectedness. Moreover, effect heterogeneity is not particularly pronounced in the dimensions under study.

    Speaker
    Time
    11:30 - 12:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Arthur-Cecil-Pigou-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 3.3.002C Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    23 June 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Business Owners, Employees and Firm Performance

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Mika Maliranta, ETLA & University of Jyväskylä

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    14 June 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Turning Points in Life Courses: Conceptualization, Measurement and Typology

    Life course research allows studying issues such as social inequality, social status attainment, education, migration, family formation, or gender as processes that involve continuity and change. Turning points are a key concept in this research field because they can help understand processes of overhaul and stability in life courses. In general terms, turnings points describe phases in which a person’s life changes directions fundamentally. Despite their prominent role in life course research, concrete conceptualizations of turning points in the literature vary and are often fuzzy. We suggest developing an analytic definition of turning points that captures core characteristics and helps analyzing turning points with either quantitative or qualitative analysis. To do so, we use a mixed methods data set comprised of SOEP data and qualitative in-depth interviews with SOEP participants. We employ qualitative case analysis to construct a thick concept of turning points in status attainment trajectories and use cluster analysis of SOEP data to explore whether our concept of turning points reflects meaningful groupings in the SOEP data. In Wednesday's Brown Bag Seminar, we will give an overview of our work in progress and (hopefully) present first results from the cluster analysis.

    Joint work with with Prof. Dr. Olaf Groh-Samberg (University of Bremen, SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy) and (Junior) Prof. Dr. Ingrid Tucci (Laboratoire d’Economie et de Sociologie du Travail, CNRS - Aix-Marseille Université).

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    8 June 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Consumer Valuation of Fuel Costs and Tax Policy: Evidence from the European Car Market

    More Information
    Extra Seminar on Thursday
    Speaker
  • Laura Grigolon, Mc Master University, Ontario

  • Inviter
    Time
    13.15 - 14.30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    7 June 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions The Increasing Longevity Gap and the Pension System

    We use social security records to document the heterogeneity in life expectancy by lifetime earnings for West Germany and we analyze how this longevity gap has evolved over cohorts. In line with previous studies, we provide evidence that the earnings-related longevity gap is increasing over cohorts. We then propose a decomposition to disentangle the role of the increasing earnings inequality over cohorts and the effect of changes in the earnings gradient on life expectancy. Finally, we study the distributional implications of the increasing longevity gap for the pension system. First, we show how the heterogeneity in life expectancy affects the distribution and the inequality of social security wealth and we document how this has evolved between the cohorts. Second, we calculate contribution/benefit ratios and compare the rates by lifetime earnings and between cohorts. Third, we extend the analysis by also accounting for survivor pensions and heterogeneous life expectancies of surviving spouses.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Schumpeter Hall) Mohrenstr. 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    24 May 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Low-income children, pre-school peer groups, and early child development: evidence from England

    Early education has increasingly been prioritised within OECD countries’ policy agenda, with a growing focus on early education’s potential to narrow the social class gaps in child development. The positive impact of early provision depends upon a number of factors, however – including the influence of the peers with whom a child interacts. Emerging evidence suggests that peers can directly influence children’s pre-academic skills, as well as affect the quality of the interactions between adults and children at group level.
    This paper examines socio-economic segregation in early education in England. Drawing on administrative data, we analyse a cohort of three-and-four-year-olds who attended early education in 2011 (approximately 560,000 children). We investigate the distributions of children across settings according to income-level and find little evidence of segregation. We also examine the relationships between peer groups in early education and children’s development in the initial year of formal schooling. We find that children who are themselves low income and attend settings with fewer peers who are also low-income have better developmental assessments.  However, this variation is largely eliminated once additional child-level characteristics, the characteristics of settings and of local areas are accounted for.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    12 May 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar On the Countervailing Power of Large Retailers when Shopping Costs Matter

    More Information
    Change of time: 12:00 - 13:15
    Speaker
  • Stéphane Caprice, Toulouse School of Economics

  • Inviter
    Time
    12:00 - 13:15
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    10 May 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions The Effect of Pension Reforms on Savings Behavior

    Many OECD countries are currently undergoing reforms of their statutory pension schemes. In theory, a decrease of pension generosity can have a positive or negative effect on private savings - depending on the corresponding level of employment effects. Thus, it is an empirical question to determine the sign of the effect. A particular reform of the German Statutory Pension Scheme lifted the early retirement age (ERA) of women. The reform was implemented along birth cohorts, allowing for an intuitive identification strategy and causal interpretation of effects.
    While previous studies found positive effects of other generosity decreasing pension reforms on private savings, this is the first study isolating the effect of an increase of the ERA on savings. An upward-shift of the ERA by 3 to 5 years has a statistically and economically significant negative effect on private monthly savings of single women. The effects in the subsample of couples are insignificant.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Ferdinand-Friedensburg-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 2.3.001 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    2 May 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar SOEP Special Brown Bag Seminar: Middle Class Fortunes in Western Europe and the U.S.
    Middle Class Fortunes in Western Europe and the U.S.

    Welcome and Introduction: Jürgen Schupp (Director SOEP)
    Comments: Markus M. Grabka (SOEP)

    Abstract:
    This study examines the state of the middle classes in the U.S. and 11 countries in Western Europe and how their economic wellbeing has changed since 1991. Among Western Europe’s largest economies, the report finds that the shares of adults living in middle-income households increased in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom from 1991 to 2010, but shrank in Germany, Italy and Spain. France, the Netherlands and the UK also experienced notable growth in disposable household income, but incomes were either stagnant or falling in Germany, Italy and Spain. Ireland stands out as experiencing the most rapid growth in income from 1991 to 2010 and the biggest expansion of the middle class. Overall, the middle-class share fell in seven of the 11 Western European countries examined, mirroring the long-term shrinking of the middle class in the U.S. The decrease in the middle-class share is typically accompanied by a move up into the upper-income tiers and a move down into the lower-income tier.

    The full report may be downloaded here.

    Speaker
  • Rakesh Kochhar
    (PewResearch Center, Washington D.C.)

  • Time
    11:00-12:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Schumpeter Saal) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 283
    28 April 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Redistribution in a Joint Income-Wealth Perspective: a Cross-Country Comparison

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Gerlinde Verbist, University of Antwerp

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    26 April 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions The Value of Partial Retirement for Labor Supply, Public Balances and Income Inequality - Evidence from a Structural Analysis

    This paper develops a structural dynamic retirement model to investigate effects and corresponding underlying mechanisms of a partial retirement program in Germany on labor supply, fiscal balances and the pension income distribution. The structural approach  allows to disentangle the two counteracting mechanisms that drive the employment effects of partial retirement: 1) the crowd-out from full-time employment, and 2) the movement from early retirement or unemployment to partial retirement. It also allows to investigate the isolated role of financial compensations in a partial retirement program. The analysis is based on a unique administrative dataset that collects biographical information on full employment histories and combines information on partial retirement take-up with information on individual pension levels. For this purpose I subsequently perform three counterfactual policy simulations: 1) full access to partial retirement 2) an increase of the normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and 3) Adding wage and pension compensations to partial retirement. The results show negative employment effects but potentially positive fiscal consequences as well as a reduction in pension income inequality when partial retirement is introduced. Wage and pension compensations in partial retirement do not substantially affect employment behavior but pension compensations proof necessary to avoid an increased risk of old-age poverty when access to partial retirement is unrestricted.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Arthur-Cecil-Pigou-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 3.3.002C Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    19 April 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar The long-term consequences of refugees' initial residential allocation in Germany

     While previous studies show that the ethnic composition of place of residence and immigrants’ socio-cultural and structural integration correlate, the theoretical linkage and the direction of the hypothesized effect remain debated. In order to explain the relationship, we test classical social capital claims about a mediation effect via social embeddedness and a direct effect via opportunities in ethnic concentrations. To preclude neighborhood-sorting effects, we employ data on refugees who arrived in the middle of the 1990s in Germany, who were randomly assigned to municipalities. We find that a higher share of foreigners in refugees’ first place of residence directly hampers their host language acquisition even long after migration, while it facilitates their chances of being employed. We further find mediation effects of co-ethnic embeddedness in ethnic concentrations hampering refugees’ host language acquisition and interactions with Germans. Thus, residential characteristics affect refugees’ long-term integration differently depending on the dimension examined.

    Speaker
  • Jörg Hartmann (University of Göttingen)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    7 April 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Does Making Sick Leave Costly Reduce Absenteeism?

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Olivier Marie, Erasmus School of Economics

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    24 March 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar The Long-Term Impacts of Low-Achieving Childhood Peers: Evidence from Project STAR

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Jan Bietenbeck, Lund University

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    17 March 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar University Selectivity and the Graduate Wage Premium: Evidence from the UK

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Ian Walker, Lancaster University

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    6 to 10 March 2017

    Workshop 46th GESIS Spring Seminar: Causal Inference with Observational Data
    Week 1: Causal Analysis with Panel Data: Potentials and Limitations

    Course description

    Longitudinal data is widely discussed as an important means to validate causal interpretations. This course introduces the basic methods suitable to exploit this potential of panel data. We start with methods for categorical independent variables. Here, we introduce the simple Life Event Design (LED) and explain how this is related to the Difference-in-Difference Estimator (DiD). If the independent variable is measured on a metric scale, social scientists usually employ regression techniques, which is also the case for longitudinal data. Therefore, we discuss extensions of the simple regression framework addressing the properties and potentials of longitudinal data. Concretely, we introduce Fixed Effects (FE), First Differences (FD), and Hybrid Regression Models (HM) and discuss the differences and assumptions of these techniques. For research questions with categorical dependent variables, we introduce two applications of logistic regression suitable for the analysis of longitudinal data: the Conditional Logistic Regression, which resembles the benefits of FE, and techniques of Event History Analysis (EHA), which are particularly suitable if the researcher explicitly focuses transitions of the dependent variable. In all parts of the course, we put a strong emphasize on the intuitive understanding of the methods employed. All exercises are based on the data from the Socio Economic Panel Study (SOEP), which will be introduced during the course.

    Keywords
    Panel data analysis, fixed effects regression, event history analysis, hybrid regression, conditional logistic regression.

    Target group
    Participants will find the course useful if they

    • have basic quantitative skills and want to add an extra qualification totheir methodological knowledge,
    • are planning empirical projects on the basis of longitudinal data,
    • are pursuing a career as empirical social scientist and have not yetlearned how to analyze panel data.

    Learning objectives
    By the end of the course participants will

    • be familiar the potential and limitations of longitudinal data to improve causal interpretations,
    • have the ability to make accurate methodological choices in particular research situations involving longitudinal data,
    • know how to apply the most important longitudinal techniques in theory and practice (on the basis of the statistical software stata, have a good overview on the analytical potential for longitudinal analysis of the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP).


    Prerequisites
    This course addresses beginners of panel data analysis. However, participants should have a solid knowledge of OLS and logistic regression techniques.
    We will use the software program Stata in the exercises. Participants be familiar with the basics of Stata, its commands to manage data, and know how to produce descriptive and multivariate statistics.

    Participation Fees
    One week courses:

    • € 250    Student rate
    • € 350    Academic/non-profit rate
    • € 700    Commercial rate
    • € 50      ECTS points

    For more information, please check the GESIS website.

    Speaker
  • Prof. Dr. Michael Windzio (mwindzio@uni-bremen.de)

  • Location
    GESIS Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften Unter Sachsenhausen 6-8 50667 Köln
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 503
    Contact(s)
    external
    Scientific coordination by Reinhard Schunck: Reinhard.Schunck@gesis.org

    Administrative coordination by Angelika Ruf: angelika.ruf@gesis.org
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