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2 May 2017

SOEP Brown Bag Seminar SOEP Special Brown Bag Seminar: Middle Class Fortunes in Western Europe and the U.S.
Middle Class Fortunes in Western Europe and the U.S.

Welcome and Introduction: Jürgen Schupp (Director SOEP)
Comments: Markus M. Grabka (SOEP)

Abstract:
This study examines the state of the middle classes in the U.S. and 11 countries in Western Europe and how their economic wellbeing has changed since 1991. Among Western Europe’s largest economies, the report finds that the shares of adults living in middle-income households increased in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom from 1991 to 2010, but shrank in Germany, Italy and Spain. France, the Netherlands and the UK also experienced notable growth in disposable household income, but incomes were either stagnant or falling in Germany, Italy and Spain. Ireland stands out as experiencing the most rapid growth in income from 1991 to 2010 and the biggest expansion of the middle class. Overall, the middle-class share fell in seven of the 11 Western European countries examined, mirroring the long-term shrinking of the middle class in the U.S. The decrease in the middle-class share is typically accompanied by a move up into the upper-income tiers and a move down into the lower-income tier.

The full report may be downloaded here.

Speaker
  • Rakesh Kochhar
    (PewResearch Center, Washington D.C.)

  • Time
    11:00-12:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Schumpeter Saal) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 283
    28 April 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Redistribution in a Joint Income-Wealth Perspective: a Cross-Country Comparison

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Gerlinde Verbist, University of Antwerp

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    26 April 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions The Value of Partial Retirement for Labor Supply, Public Balances and Income Inequality - Evidence from a Structural Analysis

    This paper develops a structural dynamic retirement model to investigate effects and corresponding underlying mechanisms of a partial retirement program in Germany on labor supply, fiscal balances and the pension income distribution. The structural approach  allows to disentangle the two counteracting mechanisms that drive the employment effects of partial retirement: 1) the crowd-out from full-time employment, and 2) the movement from early retirement or unemployment to partial retirement. It also allows to investigate the isolated role of financial compensations in a partial retirement program. The analysis is based on a unique administrative dataset that collects biographical information on full employment histories and combines information on partial retirement take-up with information on individual pension levels. For this purpose I subsequently perform three counterfactual policy simulations: 1) full access to partial retirement 2) an increase of the normal retirement age from 65 to 67, and 3) Adding wage and pension compensations to partial retirement. The results show negative employment effects but potentially positive fiscal consequences as well as a reduction in pension income inequality when partial retirement is introduced. Wage and pension compensations in partial retirement do not substantially affect employment behavior but pension compensations proof necessary to avoid an increased risk of old-age poverty when access to partial retirement is unrestricted.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Arthur-Cecil-Pigou-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 3.3.002C Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 369
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 383
    19 April 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar The long-term consequences of refugees' initial residential allocation in Germany

     While previous studies show that the ethnic composition of place of residence and immigrants’ socio-cultural and structural integration correlate, the theoretical linkage and the direction of the hypothesized effect remain debated. In order to explain the relationship, we test classical social capital claims about a mediation effect via social embeddedness and a direct effect via opportunities in ethnic concentrations. To preclude neighborhood-sorting effects, we employ data on refugees who arrived in the middle of the 1990s in Germany, who were randomly assigned to municipalities. We find that a higher share of foreigners in refugees’ first place of residence directly hampers their host language acquisition even long after migration, while it facilitates their chances of being employed. We further find mediation effects of co-ethnic embeddedness in ethnic concentrations hampering refugees’ host language acquisition and interactions with Germans. Thus, residential characteristics affect refugees’ long-term integration differently depending on the dimension examined.

    Speaker
  • Jörg Hartmann (University of Göttingen)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    7 April 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Does Making Sick Leave Costly Reduce Absenteeism?

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Olivier Marie, Erasmus School of Economics

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    24 March 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar The Long-Term Impacts of Low-Achieving Childhood Peers: Evidence from Project STAR

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Jan Bietenbeck, Lund University

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    17 March 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar University Selectivity and the Graduate Wage Premium: Evidence from the UK

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Ian Walker, Lancaster University

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    6 to 10 March 2017

    Workshop 46th GESIS Spring Seminar: Causal Inference with Observational Data
    Week 1: Causal Analysis with Panel Data: Potentials and Limitations

    Course description

    Longitudinal data is widely discussed as an important means to validate causal interpretations. This course introduces the basic methods suitable to exploit this potential of panel data. We start with methods for categorical independent variables. Here, we introduce the simple Life Event Design (LED) and explain how this is related to the Difference-in-Difference Estimator (DiD). If the independent variable is measured on a metric scale, social scientists usually employ regression techniques, which is also the case for longitudinal data. Therefore, we discuss extensions of the simple regression framework addressing the properties and potentials of longitudinal data. Concretely, we introduce Fixed Effects (FE), First Differences (FD), and Hybrid Regression Models (HM) and discuss the differences and assumptions of these techniques. For research questions with categorical dependent variables, we introduce two applications of logistic regression suitable for the analysis of longitudinal data: the Conditional Logistic Regression, which resembles the benefits of FE, and techniques of Event History Analysis (EHA), which are particularly suitable if the researcher explicitly focuses transitions of the dependent variable. In all parts of the course, we put a strong emphasize on the intuitive understanding of the methods employed. All exercises are based on the data from the Socio Economic Panel Study (SOEP), which will be introduced during the course.

    Keywords
    Panel data analysis, fixed effects regression, event history analysis, hybrid regression, conditional logistic regression.

    Target group
    Participants will find the course useful if they

    • have basic quantitative skills and want to add an extra qualification totheir methodological knowledge,
    • are planning empirical projects on the basis of longitudinal data,
    • are pursuing a career as empirical social scientist and have not yetlearned how to analyze panel data.

    Learning objectives
    By the end of the course participants will

    • be familiar the potential and limitations of longitudinal data to improve causal interpretations,
    • have the ability to make accurate methodological choices in particular research situations involving longitudinal data,
    • know how to apply the most important longitudinal techniques in theory and practice (on the basis of the statistical software stata, have a good overview on the analytical potential for longitudinal analysis of the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP).


    Prerequisites
    This course addresses beginners of panel data analysis. However, participants should have a solid knowledge of OLS and logistic regression techniques.
    We will use the software program Stata in the exercises. Participants be familiar with the basics of Stata, its commands to manage data, and know how to produce descriptive and multivariate statistics.

    Participation Fees
    One week courses:

    • € 250    Student rate
    • € 350    Academic/non-profit rate
    • € 700    Commercial rate
    • € 50      ECTS points

    For more information, please check the GESIS website.

    Speaker
  • Prof. Dr. Michael Windzio (mwindzio@uni-bremen.de)

  • Location
    GESIS Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften Unter Sachsenhausen 6-8 50667 Köln
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 503
    Contact(s)
    external
    Scientific coordination by Reinhard Schunck: Reinhard.Schunck@gesis.org

    Administrative coordination by Angelika Ruf: angelika.ruf@gesis.org
    3 March 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Policy Uncertainty and Social Security Reform

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Ben Etheridge, University of Essex

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    1 March 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Evaluating the Labor Market Effects of Compulsory Military Service in Germany

    Between 1956 and 2011 more than 12.4 million German men had to perform some form of compulsory national service, either military or civil. However, little is known about the impacts of this conscription system on draftees in Germany. I present new evidence on the long-run effects of mandatory military service on wages of West-German men born between 1960 and 1970 using detailed longitudinal data.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 268
    17 February 2017

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Evaluation of Best Price Clauses in Online Hotel Booking

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Matthias Hunold, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    1 February 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Paid parental leave and child development: Evidence from the 2007 German parental benefit reform and administrative data

    This paper examines the effects of a substantial change in publicly funded paid parental leave in Germany on child development and socio-economic development gaps at age 6. For children born before January 1, 2007, parental leave benefits were means-tested and paid for up to 24 months after childbirth.  Thereafter, parental leave benefits were earnings-related and only paid for up to 14 months. Higher-income households benefited more from the reform than low-income households. We study the reform effects on children's language skills, motor skills, socio-emotional stability, and school readiness using administrative data from mandatory school entrance examinations. To estimate causal reform effects on child development, we use a difference-in-differences design which exploits the eligibility rule based on children's birthdate. We find no impact of the reform on child development and socio-economic development gaps. The effects are precisely estimated and robust to various model specifications and sample definitions. Our results suggest that  such substantial changes in parental leave benefits are unlikely to have a substantial impact on children's development.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 268
    25 January 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Computer Assisted Measurement and Coding of Educational Qualifications in Multicultural Surveys (CAMCES): a new set of survey tools

    Education is one of the most frequently used variables in social science research. Because of complex institutional differences between educational systems across the world, educational attainment is notoriously difficult to measure in a cross-cultural survey context. So far, surveys have only offered measurement instruments referring to the educational system of the survey country, which is not necessarily the country the respondent was educated in. Between 2013 and 2016, GESIS has therefore developed context-sensitive tools for measuring educational attainment in cross-cultural computer-assisted surveys – e.g. surveys of migrants, or cross-national surveys. The tools consist of an international database of educational qualifications, a universal coding scheme for educational attainment, a questionnaire module available in 5 languages, and a software interface to allow database searches in the questionnaire and provide context-sensitive (i.e. corresponding to the country in which respondents received their education) response categories to respondents. This will improve measurement quality for the education item in several ways, for example by allowing migrants to report the educational qualification they have actually achieved rather than guessing at some face value ‘equivalent’ in the survey country; by measuring at a detailed level so as to not confuse respondents with abstract aggregations of educational qualifications on long show cards and losing a substantial amount of information for analysis; and by standard coding routines for harmonization into various comparative education coding schemes during data processing, which could improve cross-survey consistency. The presentation will also report empirical results from 3 pilot studies: the SOEP Innovation Sample 2014, the SOEP Migrant Sample 2015 and the Dutch LISS panel in 2016. For all three studies, we have independent education measures from earlier panel waves using ‘established’ questionnaire items. This provides the opportunity to compare respondents’ educational attainment resulting from the open and closed questions.

    Speaker
  • Silke Schneider and Verena Ortmanns (GESIS)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    11 January 2017

    SOEP Brown Bag Seminar Monetary returns to tertiary degrees for non-traditional alumni

    The work in progress to be presented focuses on the income mobility of non-traditional alumni in comparison to their traditional counterparts. Based on a rational-choice-approach, I assume that non-traditional alumni are driven to study by their desire to earn more money. Due to their previous occupational career, non-traditionals have more human capital to exchange for better earnings in the labor market than traditional alumni. This results in higher paying positions at the beginning of their post-study career. At the same time they are anchored at vocational career ladders by the state dependence upon their first vocational career. Therefore, they will earn less than the traditional alumni over the subsequent career. If their additional human capital will balance that difference remains an empirical question.
    I will present preliminary findings of the estimated growth models based upon waves 1 to 32 of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The findings suggest, that, in contrast to their occupational status placement, the non-traditional alumni in my sample do not differ from their traditional counterparts in regard to their hourly wage – regardless if they include bonuses or not.

    Speaker
  • Jessica Ordemann (University of Leipzig)

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 336
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 272
    4 January 2017

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Job risk, fertility, and female labor supply

    Recent research from the demographic and economic literature suggests a strong link between labor market uncertainty and fertility. Taking this relationship into account, I take a new look at parental leave policies in Germany. Using a dynamic structural life-cycle model of female labor supply and fertility, I will evaluate the impact of these policies under job risks and with fixed-term contracts. Estimation is work in progress.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 268
    7 Dec 2016

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Distributional price effects of rent controls in Berlin

    An enormous increase of initial rents in many German cities over the last decade has prompted the current grand coalition to implement a new rent control called "Mietpreisbremse" in 2015 (literally a brake on rental prices). This reform aims to stop exploding rents and to provide particularly more affordable rental housing in the lower and medium rental price segment. Since then, rental prices of re-lettings are capped at a local rental index in declared areas. As an exception, newly built ats or those that have been reconstructed extensively are not affected by the reform and landlords may always uphold the rent paid by previous tenant. I apply a classical difference-in-difference strategy and a new changes-in-changes model including covariates in order to analyze both average and distributional price effects of the intervention in Berlin. The basis for empirical results is data on newly offered rental prices from 2012 to 2016 that is also enhanced with the local rental index and previous rents. Thereby, I can define the range of effects one could reasonably expect beforehand. Results indicate that the reform indeed lowered initial rents temporarily. In contrast to the reforms intention, however, significant effects are found only in the upper price segment. The effects also fall short of anticipated expectation and fade out too fast. Meanwhile, newly offered rental prices even outrun the pre-reform level, which highlights the lack of enforcement supplementary. I will therefore argue that the reform so far has failed to meet the intended objective and is poorly targeted.

    Speaker
  • Lorenz Thomschke

  • Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 268
    2 Dec 2016

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar The Effect of Prices and Income on Carbon Emission from Food

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Sinne Smed, University of Copenhagen

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    25 Nov 2016

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Adjustment Cost and Market Structure Dynamics in High-Tech Services, 2016

    More Information
    Speaker
  • Florin Maican, Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) and University of Gothenburg

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
    23 Nov 2016

    Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions Top of the Class: the Importance of Ordinal Rank

    This paper establishes a new fact about educational production: ordinal academic rank during primary school has long-run impacts on later achievement that are independent from underlying ability. Using data on the universe of English school students, we examine a setting in which the same baseline score on a national standardized test can correspond to different ranks among students situated in different primary school classes, where we calculate ranks using this baseline score. Institutional factors cause students to be re-assigned to a new set of secondary school peers and teachers that are unaware of the student’s prior ranking. We find large and significant positive effects on test scores and subject choices during secondary school from experiencing a high primary school rank, conditional on the underlying primary baseline score. The effects are especially large for boys, contributing to an observed gender gap in end-of-high school STEM subject choices. Merged survey data suggest that the development of confidence is a likely mechanism.

    Speaker
    Time
    12:30 - 13:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 268
    11 Nov 2016

    DIW Applied Micro Seminar Gender, Competition and Choices in Higher Education

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    Speaker
  • Anne Boring, Sciences Po

  • Inviter
    Time
    13:15-14:30
    Location
    DIW Berlin (Eleanor-Dulles-Raum) DIW Berlin im Quartier 110 Room 5.2.010 Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Contact(s)
    at DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 210
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 165
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 673
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