Renate Krafft (Copyright)  Union Jack Union
Press Release, 10 Aug 2016

DIW Berlin study shows that Brexit vote-related uncertainty will do considerable damage to the European and German economies in a way that will be noticeable even two years from now – since the German economy is primarily affected by sinking business investment, policy should be more oriented ... more

Gk (Copyright)  Globus Erde Erdkugel
Interview, 10 Aug 2016

Dr. Rieth, you’ve investigated the possible consequences of the recent spike in uncertainty related to the Brexit vote. How exactly did you measure the change in economic uncertainty here? We isolated one specific aspect that was undoubtedly related to the “Leave” vote: the ... more

Monika Dietsch (Copyright)  Telefonzelle Fernsprecher Telefonzellen
Press Release, 05 Aug 2016

Brexit putting a strain on trade and dampening investment across the globe – German economy likely to be affected – uncertainty about exports – investment will be restrained, and both income and consumption will lose momentum Due to the Brexit decision, the German economy is ... more

U. Roos / Nixschwimmer D-Sign (Copyright)  London Big Ben
Interview, 05 Aug 2016

Dr. Fichtner, will the result of the British referendum to leave the EU send the UK and perhaps even the entire EU into economic crisis? We believe that economic growth in the UK has already been dampened somewhat in the short term by this result. It will have a noticeable impact on economic growth ... more

Gk (Copyright)  Detailaufnahme Detailansicht Detail
Report, 05 Aug 2016

The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union will have far-reaching implications for the British financial sector. London is currently the financial capital of Europe, and the UK's financial institutions benefit from passport rights that allow them to provide their services throughout the ... more

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by Malte Rieth, Claus Michelsen, Michele Piffer, in DIW Economic Bulletin

The Brexit vote has considerably increased economic uncertainty in Europe and beyond. It will likely affect economic performance and in particular investment in the euro area, which are both already relatively weak. The impact of this uncertainty shock on the euro area and the German economy is estimated with an econometric framework. A counterfactual analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated with the Brexit vote reduces GDP in the model economy for the euro area for more than two years, with a trough of about 0.2 percent after eight months, relative to a situation in which this shock would not have occurred. It also leads to an increase in the unemployment rate and to a mild decline of consumer prices. Investment is estimated to fall by approximately 0.7 percent over the horizon of one year. In Germany, these effects are qualitatively and quantitatively similar. The findings highlight the importance to stimulate investment in the euro area and in Germany, and to minimize uncertainty in the further political process.

by Marcel Fratzscher, Martin Gornig, Ronny Freier, Alexander S. Kritikos, in DIW Economic Bulletin

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