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Re-employment Expectations and the Eye of Providence

SOEPpapers 697, 52 S.

Sonja C. Kassenboehmer, Sonja G. Schatz

2014

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Abstract

Using a nationally representative panel dataset, this study investigates the extent and impact of systematic misconceptions of the currently unemployed concerning their statistical re-employment probability, affecting their labor market behavior in a sub-optimal way. Specifically, people with unemployment experience of 3 to 5 years significantly underestimate their objective re-employment probabilities as determined by the econometrician's all-seeing `Eye of Providence'. Simply having information concerning the individuals' previous unemployment experience is sufficient to make more accurate predictions than the individuals themselves. People who underestimate their re-employment probability are less likely to search actively for a job and indeed more likely to exit the labor force. If re-employed, they are more likely to accept lower wages, work fewer hours, work part-time and experience lower levels of job satisfaction. This information can be used by employment agency case workers to counsel clients better and prevent client adverse behavior and outcomes.



JEL-Classification: J64;J01;D84
Keywords: Job Insecurity, Re-employment Expectations, Prediction Errors
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/103384

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