Veranstaltungen des DIW Berlin/
Events of DIW Berlin

30. Oktober 2013

Brown Bag Seminar of the Sustainability Cluster From Boom to Bust? - A critical look at US Shale Gas Projections

The recent US shale gas boom has led to year-by-year upwards shifts in projected US natural gas production. However, it is unclear whether this production growth can be sustained, and whether the underlying resource estimates will prove accurate. Moreover, public acceptance may fall with ever more wells to be drilled and their adverse environmental impact. In accordance, regulation may be strengthened reducing the wells density and the potential area usable for production.
In this paper, we take a critical look at current projection and investigate the implication of a less optimistic development of US shale gas production. By means of a partial equilibrium model we can highlight the change in natural gas flows and in necessary infrastructure expansions. In a world of declining US shale production (after 2015), Europe and Asia bear at least as high a burden as US consumers regarding the reduction in consumption levels of natural gas. Trade flows are attracted towards the US and in contrast to the current discussion it is not a question about LNG export capacity needs but about a regionally distributed import infrastructure.

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