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36 Money : Chance = Spain Wins 2010 Football World Cup Jürgen Gerhards, Gert G. Wagner 2010 8 S.

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Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a simple and transparent method of predicting the outcome of the FIFA World Cup using the transfer market value of the teams. The results show that Spanish national team will win the 2010 FIFA World Cup. Another favorite is England. More elaborate and less transparent simulation studies that also incorporate experts' opinions arrive at essentially the same results: England and Brazil win on the computer, but Spain is also among the top favorites.

JEL-Classification:

B41;Z19

Keywords:

Forecasting, forecasting methods, efficiency, FIFA World Cup 2010