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Econometric Analyses of Carbon Resource Markets: Dissertation

Externe Monographien

Aleksandar Zaklan

Berlin: Technische Universität, 2012, 141 S.

Abstract

Carbon resources, mainly the fossil fuels coal, crude oil and natural gas, have been key drivers of global economic development since the industrial revolution, constituting important inputs in the production processes of several sectors, such as power generation, transportation and industry. However, the use of carbon resources has also been a cause of man-made global warming, which is projected to have detrimental consequences for human welfare and global economic performance in the long run should it continue unabated. To contain long-run welfare losses large-scale decarbonization of the global economy must take place, implying a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. A sound understanding of the markets for these resources is of great importance for our ability to anticipate the outcomes of climate policy choices and to minimize the occurrence of unintended consequences and inefficiency. However, our understanding of carbon resource markets is incomplete. This dissertation addresses a number of open questions regarding the markets for hard coal, crude oil, natural gas and the European market for carbon dioxide emission permits. Applying a range of econometric methods we analyze key patterns in these markets based on ex-post economic data, using estimation frameworks from both micro-econometrics and time series analysis. Starting with a regional perspective, we analyze the firmlevel drivers of the trade in carbon dioxide emission permits in the European context by means of a selection model. Furthermore, we test whether long-run U.S. prices of bituminous coal, crude oil and natural gas are stationary throughout their recorded history, or if they exhibit breaks in persistence. We then adopt a more international approach: Using cointegration analysis we examine whether the international steam coal trade constitutes a globally integrated market and if it is tied to the crude oil market through the role of oil in steam coal logistics. Finally, taking a fully global perspective we provide a dynamic country-level analysis of the determinants of global crude oil production.



Keywords: climate change, energy, fossil fuels, hard coal, crude oil, natural gas, carbon dioxide, EU ETS, emission permit trade, persistence break testing, unit roots, cointegration, error correction models
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http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn=urn:nbn:de:kobv:83-opus-37014

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