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Press Release
According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1 percent. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3 percent. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4 percent (previously 1.5 percent). ...
27.03.2024
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Diskussionspapiere 2071 / 2024
Our article investigates the impact of vertical integration (without foreclosure) on innovation. We compare cases where either (i) two manufacturers or (ii) a manufacturer and a vertically integrated retailer invest. Then, the independent manufacturer( s) and the retailer bargain over non-linear contracts before selling to consumers. We show that vertical integration always increases the incentives ...
2024| Claire Chambolle, Morgane Guignard
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DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2024
High construction prices and worsened financing conditions are weighing on the construction industry, especially build-ing construction. Despite a nominal increase of six percent in construction expenses in 2023, it decreased by just over one percent in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2024, the nominal construction volume is likely to contract by around 3.5 percent, declining for the first time since ...
2024| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
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Diskussionspapiere 2067 / 2024
Entrepreneurs tend to be risk tolerant but is more risk tolerance always better? In a sample of about 2,100 small businesses, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between risk tolerance and profitability. This relationship holds in a simple bilateral regression and also when we control for a large set of individual and business characteristics. Apparently, one major transmission goes from risk tolerance ...
2024| Melanie Koch, Lukas Menkhoff
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vector autoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
(2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2024-01-11]
| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper examines how news coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) affects consumer inflation expectations in the four largest euro area countries. Utilizing a unique dataset of multilingual European news articles, we measure the impact of ECB-related inflation news on inflation expectations. Our results indicate that German and Italian consumers are more attentive to this news, whereas in Spain ...
In:
Applied Economics Letters
(2024), im Ersch. [Online first: 2023-12-13]
| Vegard Høghaug Larsen, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Laura Pagenhardt
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Refereed essays Web of Science
This study quantifies the distributional effects of the minimum wage introduced in Germany in 2015. Using detailed Socio-Economic Panel survey data, we assess changes in the hourly wages, working hours, and monthly wages of employees who were entitled to be paid the minimum wage. We employ a difference-in-differences analysis, exploiting regional variation in the “bite” of the minimum wage. At the ...
In:
Empirical Economics
66 (2024), S. 735–761
| Frank M. Fossen, Johannes König, Carsten Schröder
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Refereed essays Web of Science
The EU Taxonomy is the first standardised and comprehensive classification system for sustainable economic activities. It covers activities responsible for up to 80% of EU greenhouse gas emissions and may play an important role in channelling investments into low-carbon technologies by helping investors to make informed decisions. However, especially in transition sectors much depends on the stringency ...
In:
Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment
14 (2024), 1, S. 128–160
| Franziska Schütze, Jan Stede
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Refereed essays Web of Science
We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we re-evaluate the famous Revisionism Debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their ...
In:
The Review of Economics and Statistics
(2024), im Ersch. [online first: 2023-03-15]
| Charlotte Bartels, Felix Kersting, Nikolaus Wolf
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Externe Monographien
Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated ...
Potsdam:
CEPA,
2024,
27 S.
(CEPA Discussion Papers ; 72)
| Saul Estrin, Susanna Khavul, Alexander S. Kritikos, Jonas Löher