Veranstaltungen

Die Veranstaltungen der Abteilung Makroökonomie.
24. Oktober 2018

DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets When and Why Can Forward Guidance De-anchor Expectations? (with Gaetano Gaballo, Peter Hoffmann and Georg Strasser)

The form of forward guidance matters for its effectiveness in anchoring expectations about the future path of policy rates. We report cross-country evidence about the impact of different types of forward guidance on the reactiveness of markets to macroeconomic news and on disagreement across forecasters, and show that timecontingent forward guidance over a short horizon and open-ended forward guidance are ineffective at best, and add uncertainty about the policy path at worst. Time-contingent forward guidance over long horizons makes asset prices entirely unresponsive to incoming news, and eliminates all disagreement across forecasters, whereas state-contingent forward guidance preserves some responsiveness and some disagreement. We also show that in the presence of asset purchases, forward guidance anchors expectations more effectively. We rationalize our findings with a rational expectations model with noisy market information, where the precision of the market signal depends on how strongly agents respond to their own private information, which becomes less relevant after forward guidance.

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Referent/-in
  • Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Ansprechpartner/-in
    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409
    5. - 6. Nov 2018

    Konferenz Financial Cycles and Regulation

    Deutsche Bundesbank – LOEWE Center Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe (SAFE) – The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) – The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) cordially invite to a joint conference:

    The recent Global Financial Crisis has highlighted the importance of financial cycles for macroeconomic and financial stability. While there is a widespread belief that credit and asset price cycles can affect both, there is no commonly accepted definition of the financial cycle and the analytical tools to describe it. In recent years, regulatory authorities in many coun-tries have introduced new macroprudential policy instruments with the aim of dampening financial cycles and addressing systemic risk. Given the limited agreement on the character-istics and measurement of financial cycles, it seems important to revisit current modelling strategies. The latter includes the interaction between financial and business cycles and be-tween different regulatory and stabilization policies. Since various regulatory measures (e.g., the countercyclical capital buffer) directly relate to the state of the financial cycle, a thorough understanding of the underlying macroeconomic concepts is a fundamental prerequisite for their successful application. The aim of the conference is to improve our understanding of the nature of financial cycles and to discuss the corresponding analytical challenges and implications for macroprudential policy and financial regulation. The conference is also an opportunity for an exchange of views of researchers and policymakers on the usefulness of regulatory measures.

    Paper Submission Procedure
    We are inviting papers and extended abstracts to be submitted by June 30, 2018 to 

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    Referent/-in
  • Keynote Speakers:
     Claudio Borio (BIS) 
     John H. Cochrane (Hoover Institution, Stanford University)

  • Ort
    Deutsche Bundesbank Central Office Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14 60431 Frankfurt am Main
    Ansprechpartner/-in
    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 590
    23. Januar 2019

    DIW Seminar on Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Monetary Policy Spillovers, Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes, and the Financial Channel of Exchange Rates

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    Referent/-in
  • Georgios Georgiadis, European Central Bank

  • Zeit
    12:00-13:15
    Ort
    Joan Robinson Room DIW Berlin Raum 3.3.002a Mohrenstraße 58 10117 Berlin
    Ansprechpartner/-in
    im DIW Berlin
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 486
    Tel.: +49 30 89789 409