Unequal Returns: Gendered and Origin-Based Disparities in Initial Refugee Employment Trajectories in Germany

Abstract

This article examines origin- and gender-based disparities in labourmarket integration of refugees in Germany, comparing Ukrainian refugees with refugees from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Using longitudinal data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey and the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Ukrainian Refugee Survey, we trace labour-force participation (LFP) and employment rates during the first three years after arrival. Our findings confirm the expected origin and gender gaps. Ukrainians outperform MENA refugees, and men outperform women in both LFP and employment rates. However, decomposition analyses reveal that these gaps are driven less by differences in premigration human capital, post-migration investments, caregiving responsibilities, or legal conditions as endowments. Instead, disparities in LFP are largely explained by differential returns to similar characteristics, particularly duration of stay and, for women, returns to language skills and not having children. Once selection into the labour force is accounted for, most employment gaps are reversed or disappear, indicating that early inequalities primarily arise from differential entry into LFP rather than unequal employment chances among participants. Overall, the findings highlight labour-force selection and unequal returns – rather than resource deficits – as central mechanisms shaping early refugee labour-market integration.