Diese Dissertation untersucht die Transmission und Ausgestaltung makroökonomischer Politik mit Schwerpunkt auf Geldpolitik, Fiskalpolitik und Finanzstabilitätspolitik. In vier Kapiteln untersuche ich, wie die Glaubwürdigkeit von Zentralbanken die Anfälligkeit einer Volkswirtschaft gegenüber internationalen geldpolitischen Spillover-Effekten prägt, wie Geldpolitik mit Energiepreisen interagiert, wie die Sicherheitenpolitik von Zentralbanken makrofinanzielle Ergebnisse beeinflusst und wie verschiedene fiskalpolitische Instrumente in einer Währungsunion wirken. Zusammengenommen zeigt die Dissertation, welche Rolle Inflationserwartungen, globale Preisverflechtungen, finanzielle Friktionen und institutionelle Rahmenbedingungen für die Wirksamkeit von Geld-, Fiskal- und Finanzstabilitätspolitik spielen.
This dissertation examines how expectations, global price linkages, financial frictions, and institutional arrangements shape the transmission and conduct of monetary, fiscal, and financial-stability policies. Combining high-frequency event studies, Bayesian structural vector autoregressions, empirical policy counterfactuals, and New Keynesian models, its four essays provide complementary evidence from international and euro-area settings. First, the dissertation shows that credible inflation targeting insulates economies from U.S. monetary-policy spillovers: when long-term inflation expectations are weakly anchored, foreign tightening produces stronger inflationary pressures, more aggressive domestic interest-rate responses, and larger output losses, thereby restricting monetary-policy autonomy. Second, it demonstrates that ECB monetary tightening lowers global oil prices and euro-area consumer energy prices; because energy prices adjust rapidly, this channel accelerates disinflation and improves the inflation-output trade-off, while treating energy prices as exogenous leads to overstated interest-rate requirements and a less favorable assessment of mandate-optimal policy responses to energy-supply shocks. Third, a novel identification of Eurosystem collateral policy interventions reveals that collateral easing raises bank equity values, reduces financial uncertainty and bank default risk, and lowers sovereign borrowing costs—especially in peripheral countries—highlighting a distinct and uneven transmission mechanism operating through banking-sector fragmentation and sovereign-bank linkages. Finally, the dissertation finds that although both tax cuts and government spending increases stimulate output in a monetary union, government consumption and investment generate substantially larger and more persistent effects because their inflationary impact lowers real interest rates when common monetary policy does not respond to country-specific shocks. Overall, the findings show that macroeconomic policies cannot be evaluated independently of the environments in which they operate, as their effectiveness and associated policy trade-offs depend critically on credibility, endogenous global prices, financial-market structure, and monetary-union institutions.
Topics: Business cycles, Monetary policy, Financial markets, Europe