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A New Indicator Based on Neftçi's Approach for Predicting Turning Points of the Euro-Zone Growth Cycle

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 2001, S. 364-376

Jacques Anas, Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom

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"[...] in many situations a decision does not have to be made immediately, but can be delayed until additional information has been acquired. Sequential analysis seems particularly applicable to the problem of predicting turning points in the business cycle" (Palash and Radecki, 1985). Elaborating on this idea, we propose a new approach to predict cyclical turning points in the Euro-zone using the Neftçi's approach. The output is a probability index for a forthcoming economic turning point.