Discussion Papers 840, 19 S.
Boriss Siliverstovs, Rainald Ötsch, Claudia Kemfert, Carlo Jaeger, Armin Haas, Hans Kremers
2008. Dez.
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Published in: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 24 (2010), No. 2, 311-326
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.
Topics: Climate policy
JEL-Classification: Q54;C11
Keywords: Climate change, GEV, Bayesian modelling, Great Alpine Heat Wave
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/27363