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Climate Change and Modelling of Extreme Temperatures in Switzerland

Discussion Papers 840, 19 S.

Boriss Siliverstovs, Rainald Ötsch, Claudia Kemfert, Carlo Jaeger, Armin Haas, Hans Kremers

2008. Dez.

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Published in: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 24 (2010), No. 2, 311-326


This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of 2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted in the relevant literature.

Claudia Kemfert

Head of Department in the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department

Topics: Climate policy

JEL-Classification: Q54;C11
Keywords: Climate change, GEV, Bayesian modelling, Great Alpine Heat Wave
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)