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Modelling State Dependence and Feedback Effects between Poverty, Employment and Parental Home Emancipation among European Youth

SOEPpapers 235, 42 S.

Sara Ayllón


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Youth is one of the phases in the life-cycle when some of the most decisive life transitions take place. Entering the labour market or leaving parental home are events with important consequences for the economic well-being of young adults. In this paper, the interrelationship between employment, residential emancipation and poverty dynamics is studied for eight European countries by means of an econometric model with feedback effects. Results show that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant. Evidence proves there is a strong causal effect between poverty and leaving home in Scandinavian countries, however, time in economic hardship does not last long. In Southern Europe, instead, youth tend to leave their parental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that is more persistent. Past poverty has negative consequences on the likelihood of employment.

JEL-Classification: I32;J13;C33
Keywords: Youth poverty dynamics, trivariate multinomial probit, state dependence, feedback effects, unobserved heterogeneity
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)