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Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Jean-Francois Maystadt, Margherita Calderone, Liangzhi You

In: Journal of Economic Geography 15 (2015), 3, S. 649-671


Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24–31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.

Topics: Climate policy

JEL-Classification: D74;O13;Q54;R11
Keywords: Weather shocks, violent conflict, Sudan, disaggregated spatial analysis, pastoralism