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Tendenzen der bauwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Berlin (West) bis zum Jahre 1977

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 2 / 1974, S. 144-162

Peter Ring

Abstract

It is the purpose of the present study to identify the tendencies shaping future demand for construction and to examine the development of capacity in the West Berlin construction industry. The information provided should be helpful to public officials - the most important customer on the regional market - in their medium term finance planning to arrive at construction plans which reflect the goals of economic and social policy as well as the current capacity situation. The starting point of the analysis a forecast of demand for construction in the separate construction branches in the period 1973-1977. Based on this demand and present "overhang" demand, the required performance of various branches of the construction industry are determined. Productive capacity is estimated, based on capacity for the base year 1972 and certain assumptions regarding the development of employment and productivity. On the basis of utilization figures, demand - or excess capacity - are then obtained for the sector overall and for individual branches. Our calculation showed the following: Construction firms will be operating practically at full capacity until 1975. Thereafter the level of utilization will fall in overground building as well as in underground building. The finishing trade will remain fully employed during the whole period taken into consideration. Compared to the analysis of a year ago, published in 1973 as No. 94 in the series "Sonderhefte" of the DIW, Berlin, the situation in overground building has changed to the worse although, additionally, the employment kept to decrease.

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