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Bestimmungsgründe der direkten Steuern: Ergebnisse einer multiplen Regressionsanalyse der direkten Steuern der Arbeitgeber und der Arbeitnehmer

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 3 / 1974, S. 228-243

Dieter Teichmann


The purpose of the preceding analysis is the expansion of theory regarding the national economic determinants of receipts from direct taxation of the employee and the employer, toward the end of obtaining tax yield forecasts over a period of six quarters. Based on quarterly National Accounts figures, two separate formulas for estimation of the direct taxation of the employer and the employee were developed using a multiple regression approach. After the testing of a number of approaches, those in which the highest degree of adaptability and statistical corroboration of the estimated parameters was found were selected for use. The most significant independent variables in the employer-taxation estimates were the sum of gross entrepreneurial and property income and depreciation inserted with a time lag of three quarters, nominal GNP with a time lag of four quarters, and the interest rate on 90-day money with a time lag of three quarters. The seasonal curve was shown by setting dummy variables. As expected, the total taxation of employers proved difficult to estimate, owing to the variety of kinds of taxes and tax bases. In view of these and such difficulties, the results must be regarded as satisfactory. Until now, econometric studies have given little attention to taxpayer moods as an additional factor influencing tax receipts. Results here confirm the hypothesis that a close relationship exists between the general liquidity situation and the employer tax yield. Ex post observation reveals that a raising (or lowering) of interest rates by one percentage point will result in a decrease (or increase) in the tax yield of about DM 1 billion a year. By contrast, the relationship between incomes and the employee tax yield poses fewer problems, as moods and lag structures have practically no bearing on yield development. The direct taxation of employees was computed from total wages and salaries figures and marginal tax rates derived from income tax tables. The highly pronounced seasonal curve is represented by dummy variables. With regard to adaptability and quality of forecast, the regression approaches can be regarded as satisfactory.

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