Beschäftigung und Arbeitnehmereinkommen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im Jahre 1972

Abstract

After a period of torrid development, wage expansion eased in 1972, influenced in part by the deceleration in economic development which was already observable in the preceding year. This slowdown - a very modest one to begin with - was, however, soon replaced by a renewed upsurge; this is clearly indicated by fourth-quarter 1972 data. The weakening tendencies displayed by the labor market earlier in the year did not take on the proportions that had been feared. The annual average for 1972 shows a 9 per cent increase in total wages and salaries. In the quarter-to-quarter observation, the weakening can be seen continuing into the third quarter. At the start of the year 1972, there was still uncertainty regarding whether the unfavorable labor market conditions might lead to widespread lay-offs on the scale of the 1966/67 recession. It soon became obvious, however, that fears of this happening were unfounded. The decline in employment was slight; only in certain cases was it more pronounced. The turnaround here had already occurred in autumn 1972: Seasonally adjusted employment figures rose from the second to the third quarter of 1972. The general economic deceleration was reflected more strongly in wage development than in .employment. The subsequent resurgence was also transmitted instantly to average employee income. The problem and dangers of a renewed overheating of the economy had already become central by the fourth quarter of 1972. The labor market situation stabilized toward the turn of the year 1972/73, although up until then there was no significant decrease in joblessness. In the early months 1973, demand for labor was already increasing sharply; the number of job openings rose considerably (as of the end of May, 76,00 more than one year ago). Overall employment also showed an increase in the yearly comparison (+ 1 per cent in the first quarter 1973). In the first half of 1973, the upward tendencies on the labor market and in wages and salaries has consolidated. Presumably, the increase in total wages and salaries was around 12 per cent. Owing to the stability program recently set forth by the Federal Government, development (nominally speaking) in the second half is more difficult to foretell. Much will depend on the dumping effects stemming from the various measures. It can still be assumed, however, that total wages and salaries will accelerate somewhat in the second half.