Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung 4 / 1971, S. 287-300
It is the purpose of the present study to identify the tendencies shaping future demand for construction and to examine the development of Capacity in the West Berlin construction industry. The information provided should be helpful to public officials - the most important customer on the regional market - in their medium term finance planning to arrive at construction plans which reflect the goals of economic and social policy as well as the current capacity situation. The starting point of the analysis is a forecast of demand for construction in the separate construction branches in the period 1971-1975. Based on this demand and present "overhang" demand, the required performance of various branches of the construction industry are determined. Productive capacity is estimated, based on capacity for the base year 1970 and certain assumptions regarding the development of employment and productivity. On the basis of utilization figures, demand - or excess capacity - are then obtained for the sector overall and for individual branches. Our calculation showed the following: Both construction and finishing firms will be operating practically at full capacity until 1972. After 1972 the level of utilization will fall rapidly in construction - due primarily to the development of building construction. The finishing trade will remain fully employed until 1974, after which capacity utilization here will also decline.