Zur Entwicklung des künftigen Wachstumspotentials in der BRD

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to analyse the development of the potential rate of growth in the Federal Republic of Germany and derive a medium-term forecast. To this end, potential employment and productive capacity are computed for the time 1954-1969 which is subdivided into three adjustment periods. Capacity functions such as these make it possible to represent the process of growth free of fluctuations in capacity utilization. Based on the determinants of a Cobb-Douglas production function, a number of possible growth paths can then be set up for productive capacity to 1974 contingent upon: (1) the growth rate of gross fixed investment, (2) the factor elasticity of capital, and (3) the selected adjustment periods. As the results reveal, the overall economic conditions - in contrast to the often expressed fears - by no means worsened in the second half of the sixties. A possible bottleneck for future growth could develop should the present rate of improvement of infra-structure facilities not be maintained. To avert this bottleneck, a yearly growth of real public investment of more than 10 per cent is required. If this can be accomplished, it can be assumed that growth potential will expand at an annual rate of 5,2 per cent over the next five years.