Eingestellte DIW Publikationen 1 / 1970, S. 71-84
Siegfried Schultz
Development planning in less developed countries started out with the determination of instrument variables as are necessary to achieve the targets set on the macro-level. Planning becomes more meaningful by checking for consistency and testing the feasibility of growth alternatives on the sectoral level. The disaggregation calls for suitable projection techniques to estimate future values of key variables on a sectoral level considering past trends as well as anticipated variations in structural relations and economic policies. Projection techniques thus far employed - more or less on a trial basis - in less developed countries range from simple extrapolation, the growth elasticity approach, the disaggregated macro-model approach, through application of the input-output method. While explicitly taking into account intermediary transactions among sectors, the input-output approach proved not only to be a useful tool for analyzing the intersectoral network; furthermore, it can be used as a basis for establishing sectoral plans in a mutually consistent manner and for detection of potential bottlenecks-provided the availability and reliability of required data.