Beschäftigung und Arbeitnehmereinkommen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im Jahre 1969

Abstract

In the course of the rapid and momentum-gathering economic upswing in 1968 the far-reaching effects of the recession could be overcome with less difficulty than had been anticipated. Conditions at the beginning of 1969 thus appeared quite favorable for a strong expansion of the economy. Wages and salaries, which in the first half of 1968 contributed only moderately to demand growth, had also gradually reached a rate of increase which, even in comparison to earlier upswings, was quite remarkable. The continuation of the upswing in 1969 was an added factor in the wage and salary expansion, which accelerated with each succeeding quarter. A clear break in trend was marked by the late summer strike movements wage and salary increases, intensified abruptly at this point, put income development in the German economy on a new course: ln the fourth quarter of 1969, total wages and salaries paid were no less than 16 per cent above the level of one year previous. Increases were greater than at any time since the Korean crisis. The upsurge in wages and salaries, considerably strengthened since fall 1969, has continued at increasing rates in the first half of 1970. Total wages and salaries in this half were 17 per cent above the first-six-month result for 1969, thus reaching a hitherto unobserved growth rate. At the same time, overall income development in the German economy has become quite differentiated: Gross profits have increased very little. The marked divergence between development of production and of wages and salaries has, since the beginning of this year, been a source of concern. Productivity (per man hour) growth at present barely exceeds 5 per cent, the lag behind average individual income development is steadily growing larger. Labor cost per unit has thus been continually accelerating since the first of the year. An assessment of future development - even with regard to the general tendency - involves a large degree of uncertainty. A great deal depends upon the actions of the bargaining parties. According to our estimates, total wages and salaries in 1970 should increase by about 16 per cent. A certain measure of relaxation is thus expected in the second half.