Eine langfristige Projektion des Energieverbrauchs in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Abstract

The projection of final energy demand is carried out by means of various estimation procedures. Assumptions made on the development of GNP (assumed annual growth 4-5 per cent real) in the Federal Republic of Germany are of key importance. Given the assumed GNP growth, final demand increases from 212 million metric ton bituminous coal units (1968) to 404 million metric ton BCU in 1985. Primary demand on the other hand rises from 294 million metric ton BCU (1968) to 594 million metric ton BCU in 1985. Under present economic conditions, the shift from bituminous coal to other energy sources should continue. ln the estimations of brown coal consumption it was assumed that the brown coal reserves located in the Hambacher Forest would be used. Reports on probable production costs are somewhat above present brown coal production costs, but still significantly below the price plus taxes of heavy fuel oil and the border price for natural gas from Holland (in terms of metric ton BCU). The structural shift is principally to natural gas and atomic energy and to a limited extent also to mineral oil. These energy sources thus satisfy about 85 per cent of primary demand in the year 1985. Bituminous coal consumption continuing at the 98.5 million metric to BCU (1968) would have only a slight influence on the overall structural shift. Assuming this would detract only from use of the above three sources, by 1985 this share would decrease from about 85 to about 76 per cent-i.e. still more than three fourths the total primary demand. It is in our opinion necessary to give attention to perspectives opened up by this projection-particularly under the aspect of a secure and favorably priced energy supply-in the formulation of present energy-policy concepts.