Zur EWG-Erweiterung: Beitrittsprobleme unter besonderer Berücksichtigung Grossbritanniens

Abstract

The entry of United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, and Norway would increase the economic potential of the EEC by about one-third. The favorable effects on trade, investment, and rationalization could in addition promote growth and reinforce the monetary position of the EEC. At the same time there exists the possibility of negative effects on the integration process, the regional pattern of trade and international factor mobility. Thus extensive flanking measures are called for. The expansion of the EEC revolves completely around the results of the negotiations with Britain, an applicant for admission already in 1961 and 1967. The problems facing a British entry at present are somewhat different than those of 1961. Whereas the questions concerning import levies and the Commonwealth have become less troublesome, the agricultural problem has become more so. Aside from real costs connected with the realignment of agricultural trade and the adjustment to the higher EEC price level, the U.K. can expect considerable burdens on her balance of payments stemming from her future assessment for the European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund. The reason for this lies in the particularly small ratio of agriculture in total production in Great Britain and in the high level of agricultural product imports from third countries. In view of Britain’s economic potential as well as the especially pronounced conflict of growth and balance-of-payments objectives, an initial contribution quota of 18% to the expanded EEC Agricultural Fund seems appropriate. In the course of gradual transition to a permanent EEC financial system, however, the British contribution, in absolute terms, should double over the next 8 years. . An overcompensation for the immediate costs of entry is expected by the British government and public from an activation of the industry sector. Certainly, the development advantages of a specialized goods trade on an expanded market can be recognized viewing the trade pattern in France and the Federal Republic of Germany. However, there are many indications that for Great Britain the activation effect is over several years not sufficient to cover the current costs of membership. Whereas on the other hand even a relatively small participation by Britain in the Agricultural Fund and an expansion of the EEC market reduces costs or opens up additional development possibilities for the six present member countries, there do exist economically feasible possibilities for concessions to Great Britain in transitional questions with regard to finances and the Commonwealth.