The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

DIW Weekly Report 44 / 2015, S. 587-591

Christian Dreger, Konstantin Kholodilin

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The Russian economy is tightly woven into the global economy, and is therefore highly dependent on the development of exchange rates. Since 2014, the ruble has fallen by more than 50 percent against the US dollar. The de¬valuation goes hand in hand with the Western sanctions that were imposed due to the political tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, the decline in oil prices may also have contributed to the ruble’s depreciation. The study at hand examines the relative importance of the different factors influencing the ruble’s exchange rate. It turns out that the devaluation is mostly due to the falling oil prices, while the sanctions are playing a rather subordinate role.

Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

Topics: Monetary policy

JEL-Classification: C22;F31;F51
Keywords: Political conflict, sanctions, oil prices, Russian ruble depreciation
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