Do Stock Prices Reflect Their Fundamentals? New Evidence in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Anton Velinov, Wenjuan Chen

In: Journal of Economics and Business 80 (2015), S. 1-20


We re-examine the dynamic relations between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals for six major industrialized countries in the wake of the recent financial crisis. Our analysis is based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, which relies on a long-run restriction to identify fundamental and non-fundamental shocks to stock prices. This paper is the first in this line of literature to formally test the identifying restriction. We do so by means of a Markov switching-SVAR (MS-SVAR) model in heteroskedasticity. We generally find that it is supported by the data. Our structural analysis shows that after the 2008 financial crisis, stock prices tend to fall in line with their fundamentals for all six countries investigated. In general, we observe a self-correction of stock prices towards their fundamental values.

Anton Velinov

Research Associate in the Graduate Center

JEL-Classification: C32;C34;G12
Keywords: Markov switching model, Structural vector autoregression, Heteroskedasticity, Stock price fundamentals