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Think National, Forecast Local: A Case Study of 71 German Urban Housing Markets

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Boriss Siliverstovs

In: Applied Economics 49 (2017), 42, S. 4271-4297


In this article, we examine whether the local indicators are able to predict the city-level housing prices and rents better than national indicators. For this purpose, we assess the forecasting ability of 126 indicators and 21 types of forecast combinations using a sample of 71 large German cities. There are several predictors that are especially useful, namely price-to-rent ratios, national-level business confidence, and consumer surveys. We also find that combinations of individual forecasts are among the top forecasting models. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by a reduction in root mean square error, compared to the naive models.

Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

JEL-Classification: C21;C23;C53
Keywords: Housing prices and rents, forecast combinations, spatial dependence, Germany