The German economy has bottomed out, but its recovery is going to be long and arduous. Nevertheless, following the almost two-digit slump in economic output in the second quarter of 2020, recovery is likely to be accompanied by above-average rates. However, it is assumed that a second wave will not occur and lockdown-like measures will not be reimplemented. Private consumption in particular will markedly ...
2020| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt
The coronavirus pandemic caused a global market crash in the first half of 2020. Following a massive slump of around four percent in the first quarter, global GDP decreased in the second by five percent. Lower rates of new infections, together with far-reaching monetary and fiscal policy measures to dampen the economic impact of the pandemic, ensure that production and the trust of consumers and firms ...
2020| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sandra Pasch, Malte Rieth
Societal acceptance of the LGBTQI* people has greatly improved over the past decades in Germany and legal equal treatment on the labor market has been improved by the General Equal Treatment Act (Allgemeines Gleichbehandlungsgesetz, AGG). However, about 30 percent of those who identify as LGBTQI* report experiencing discrimination in their work life, according to the results of a survey conducted by ...
2020| Lisa de Vries, Mirjam Fischer, David Kasprowski, Martin Kroh, Simon Kühne, David Richter, Zaza Zindel
Following the global financial crisis of 2008/2009, many European countries introduced bank levies to enable financial institutions to share in the costs of future banking crises via resolution and restructuring funds. Simultaneously, bank levies can set an incentive for banks to reduce their leverage, thereby achieving a more stable capital structure. Using information from banks’ balance sheets, ...
Five years ago, almost a million people came to Germany seeking refuge. Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to public concern over such a large influx of refugees with her well-known saying, “Wir schaffen das” (We can do this!). Much has happened since then. As this report shows, the German population’s concerns over immigration have been decreasing since 2016. Nevertheless, refugees are increasingly ...
Germany has seen the arrival of a large number of displaced children and adolescents in recent years. Integration is vital for their lives today and in the future. Key indicators of successful integration are a sense of belonging to school, participation in extracurricular activities, both within school and outside it, and social contacts. The present report examines these indicators based on data ...
2020| Ludovica Gambaro, Daniel Kemptner, Lisa Pagel, Laura Schmitz, C. Katharina Spieß
This report compares employment expectations among refugees in Germany in 2016 with their actual employment situation in 2018, using the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees in Germany. In 2016, the majority of refugees reported that the probability they would find employment within two years was high. Employment expectations were met by 54 percent of all refugees; yet 35 percent of refugees who articulated ...
The European banking union has so far lacked its third pillar: a joint insurance fund for bank savings deposits. As the present study shows, this could be a major disadvantage in dealing with the economic impact of the corona pandemic. A scenario in which a wave of corporate insolvencies leads to loan and deposit losses reaching six percent over a year would over- whelm Germany’s national deposit insurance ...
2020| Marius Clemens, Stefan Gebauer, Tobias König
Individuals with assets in the millions of euros have been underrepresented in population surveys and accordingly little has been known about them. As a result, the full extent of wealth concentration in Germany was unknown. To close the existing data gap, the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) inte- grated a special sample in which individuals with high assets are overrepresented. New calculations using ...
2020| Carsten Schröder, Charlotte Bartels, Konstantin Göbler, Markus M. Grabka, Johannes König
The European Green Deal, initiated by the EU Commission, is a package of measures aimed at decarbonization and sustainable economic development with the goal of making the European Union climate neutral by 2050. To achieve this goal, the emission reductions target must be increased from 40 percent to 65 percent compared to 1990 levels, as the model calculations in this Weekly Report show. Fossil and ...
2020| Karlo Hainsch, Leonard Göke, Claudia Kemfert, Pao-Yu Oei, Christian von Hirschhausen
Currently, the European Commission intends to increase the EU’s 2030 climate target. Instead of a 40 percent target, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 50 to 55 percent compared to 1990 levels; the European Parliament is even considering a 65-percent reduction. The European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) sectors should make an appropriate contribution to this reduction. However, decisive ...
2020| Aleksandar Zaklan, Vicki Duscha, Claudia Gibis, Jakob Wachsmuth, Jan Weiß, Claudia Kemfert
The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand for some time to come. The German Federal Government was able to avoid the worst by implementing measures to ...
2020| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt, Thore Schlaak
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