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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial institutions in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We consider two states of the world: tranquil and turbulent. We decompose the observable time-varying price volatility during the period 2006M6–2016M5 into changes in the slopes of traders’ demand curves and into changes ...
In:
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
191 (2021), S. 1011-1024
| Daniel Bierbaumer, Malte Rieth, Anton Velinov
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...
In:
Journal of Public Economics
203 (2021), 104513, 18 S.
| Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper studies the impact of financial investments on agricultural futures prices, using structural vector autoregressions. We identify exogenous variation in net long positions of speculators through heteroskedasticity. We first show that demand shocks of both index investors and noncommercial traders lead to a statistically significant contemporaneous increase in futures prices. We then quantify ...
In:
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
102 (2020), 3, S. 759-785
| Michael Hachula, Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with external instruments. The instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private ...
In:
Journal of the European Economic Association
18 (2020), 1, S. 202-231
| Michael Hachula, Michele Piffer, Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reform adoption in the euro area. We identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We find that surprise monetary expansions increase the number of reforms significantly and that the effect is stronger for countries with weaker macroeconomic ...
In:
European Economic Review
122 (2020), 103361, 20 S.
| Malte Rieth, Jana Wittlich
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, ...
In:
Journal of International Economics
123 (2020), 103308, 16 S.
| Marcel Fratzscher, Christoph Große Steffen, Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
The article analyses the empirical relationship between bank credit risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area, using a system of simultaneous equations identified through heteroskedasticity. We first confirm a two-way causality between both risks, which amplifies initial credit risk shocks. We also document significant credit risk spillovers between sovereigns and banks in the periphery and the ...
In:
Review of Finance
23 (2019), 4, S. 745-775
| Marcel Fratzscher, Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic long-run levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
In:
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
85 (2017), S. 1-20
| Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility using macro data from a sample of OECD countries over the period 1982–2009. Our measure of progressivity is based on the difference between the marginal and the average personal income tax rate for the average production worker. We find supportive empirical evidence for the hypothesis that higher ...
In:
Canadian Journal of Economics
49 (2016), 3, S. 968-996
| Malte Rieth, Cristina Checherita-Westphal, Maria-Grazia Attinasi
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances ...
In:
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
38 (2014), S. 250-265
| Malte Rieth