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Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied ...

Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall ...

A Complementarity Model for the European Natural Gas Market

In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call "traders", pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, traders, ...

A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD)

This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market) and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, ...

Knappes Gas – Optionen zur Verringerung der Deckungslücke in Deutschland

In this article, we provide the results of a simple quantitative analysis of the potential remedies to reduce the supply gap in Germany that arises if Russia stops delivering natural gas. We take into account the supply potential of other suppliers, and combine this with an analysis of the additional supply potential by stopping electricity generation from natural gas. Moreover, we investigate the ...

The Infrastructure Implications of the Energy Transformation in Europe until 2050: Lessons from the EMF28 Modeling Exercise

This paper summarizes the approaches to and the implications of bottom-up infrastructure modeling in the framework of the EMF28 model comparison "Europe 2050: The Effects of Technology Choices on EU Climate Policy". It includes models covering all the sectors currently under scrutiny by the European Infrastructure Priorities: Electricity, natural gas, and CO2. Results suggest that some infrastructure ...

The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model

We discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry through 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a multi-period strategic representation of the global natural gas sector, between 2005 and 2030. We specify a 'base case' and then analyse the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios, including various supply scenarios (e.g., emergence of large volumes of unconventional ...

LNG Import Capacity Expansion in Germany: Short-term Relief Likely to Turn into Medium-term Stranded Assets

Klimapolitik und Stranded Assets in der fossilen Wirtschaft

Fossile Kapitalanlagen entlang der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette – von Reserven bis zu Infrastruktur und Unternehmenswerten – werden durch die Transformation des Energiesystems in den nächsten Jahrzehnten massiv an Wert verlieren, also zu „Stranded Assets“ werden. Die Erfassung dieser Verluste hilft, Einzelinteressen in der Klimapolitik besser zu verstehen.

Perspektiven des globalen Kesselkohlenmarktes: das COALMOD-World-Modell