Diskussionspapiere 1837 / 2019
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organisations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our study provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, ...
2019| Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, Hashem al-Kuhlani
Diskussionspapiere 1790 / 2019
The Trump administration has promised to stop the spiraling down of the U.S. coal industry that has been going on for several years. We discuss the origins of the decline of the U.S. coal industry and new policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that a further decrease of coal consumption in the U.S. electricity sector must be expected because of the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired ...
2019| Roman Mendelevitch, Christian Hauenstein, Franziska Holz
Diskussionspapiere 1782 / 2019
Existing long-term energy and climate scenarios are typically a rather simple extrapolation of past trends. Both qualitative and quantitative outlooks co-exist, but they often focus narrowly on individual perspectives, which is opposed to the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. Therefore, this study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary narratives that give insight into four ...
2019| Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, Hasan Basri Tosun
Diskussionspapiere 1548 / 2016
The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), ...
2016| Lissy Langer, Daniel Huppmann, Franziska Holz
Diskussionspapiere 1516 / 2015
The Netherlands have been a pivotal supplier in Western European natural gas markets in the last decades. Recent analyses show that the Netherlands would play an important role in replacing Russian supplies in Germany and France in case of Russian export disruption (Richter & Holz, 2015). However, the Netherlands have suffered from regular earthquakes in recent years that are related to the natural ...
2015| Franziska Holz, Hanna Brauers, Philipp M. Richter, Thorsten Roobeek
Diskussionspapiere 1498 / 2015
Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. Here, we investigate investment behavior and trade in an imperfect market structure under uncertainty in both supply and demand. We focus on three uncertain events: i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries ...
2015| Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz
Diskussionspapiere 1383 / 2014
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has revitalized the European concerns of supply disruptions of natural gas as experienced in 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed since: imports aremore diversified, EU member states better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, several East European countries ...
2014| Philipp M. Richter, Franziska Holz
Diskussionspapiere 1317 / 2013
The interdependence of electricity and natural gas is becoming a major energy policy and regulatory issue in all jurisdictions around the world. The increased role of gas fired plants in renewable-based electricity markets and the dependence on gas imports make this issue particular striking for the European energy market. In this paper we provide a comprehensive combined analysis of electricity and ...
2013| Jan Abrell, Clemens Gerbaulet, Franziska Holz, Casimir Lorenz, Hannes Weigt
Diskussionspapiere 1273 / 2013
In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas ...
2013| Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, Ruud Egging
Diskussionspapiere 1146 / 2011
Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often their first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between ...
2011| Clemens Haftendorn, Claudia Kemfert, Franziska Holz