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Diskussionspapiere 1067 / 2010
Coal continues to be an important fuel in many countries' energy mix and, despite the climate change concerns, it is likely to maintain this position for the next decades. In this paper a numerical model is developed to investigate the evolution of the international market for steam coal, the coal type used for electricity generation. The main focus is on future trade ows and investments in production ...
2010| Clemens Haftendorn, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen
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Diskussionspapiere 959 / 2009
We provide the description and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set contains more than 80 countries and regions and covers 98% of world wide natural gas production and consumption. ...
2009| Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 931 / 2009
In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity ...
2009| Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Sophia Rüster, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 869 / 2009
This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the particularities of these benchmark price indices and their influence on the market of physical oil. This ...
2009| Daniel Huppmann, Franziska Holz
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Diskussionspapiere 845 / 2008
This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied ...
2008| Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 823 / 2008
We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation ...
2008| Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert
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Diskussionspapiere 818 / 2008
With its resource availability and the prospect of climate friendly technology, coal continues to play an important role in the global energy sector. We develop a complementarity model of the international market for steam coal. We want to analyze the level of competition in this market which is strategic for the importers' security of energy supply. In a spatial equilibrium framework, we assume the ...
2008| Clemens Haftendorn, Franziska Holz
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Diskussionspapiere 732 / 2007
In this paper, we present a detailed and comprehensive complementarity model for computing market equilibrium values in the European natural gas system. Market players include producers and their marketing arms which we call "transmitters", pipeline and storage operators, marketers, LNG liquefiers, regasifiers, tankers, and three end-use consumption sectors. The economic behavior of producers, transmitters, ...
2007| Ruud Egging, Steven A. Gabriel, Franziska Holz, Jifang Zhuang
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Diskussionspapiere 551 / 2006
Structural changes in the European natural gas market such as liberalization, increasing demand, and growing import dependency have triggered new attempts to model this market accurately. This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stagegame of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream ...
2006| Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert
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DIW Roundup 58 / 2015
The recent decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not to decrease their output quota in spite of a drastic decline of crude oil prices has brought renewed attention to this supplier group dominating the crude oil market. However, the empirical evidence that OPEC truly acts as a textbook cartel is rather limited. This Roundup summarizes the theories proposed over the ...
2015| Daniel Huppmann, Franziska Holz