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Diskussionspapiere 1383 / 2014
The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has revitalized the European concerns of supply disruptions of natural gas as experienced in 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed since: imports aremore diversified, EU member states better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, several East European countries ...
2014| Philipp M. Richter, Franziska Holz
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Diskussionspapiere 1317 / 2013
The interdependence of electricity and natural gas is becoming a major energy policy and regulatory issue in all jurisdictions around the world. The increased role of gas fired plants in renewable-based electricity markets and the dependence on gas imports make this issue particular striking for the European energy market. In this paper we provide a comprehensive combined analysis of electricity and ...
2013| Jan Abrell, Clemens Gerbaulet, Franziska Holz, Casimir Lorenz, Hannes Weigt
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Diskussionspapiere 1273 / 2013
In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas ...
2013| Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, Ruud Egging
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Diskussionspapiere 1146 / 2011
Because of economic growth and a strong increase in global energy demand the demand for fossil fuels and therefore also greenhouse gas emissions are increasing, although climate policy should lead to the opposite effect. The coal market is of special relevance as coal is available in many countries and often their first choice to meet energy demand. In this paper we assess possible interactions between ...
2011| Clemens Haftendorn, Claudia Kemfert, Franziska Holz
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Diskussionspapiere 1067 / 2010
Coal continues to be an important fuel in many countries' energy mix and, despite the climate change concerns, it is likely to maintain this position for the next decades. In this paper a numerical model is developed to investigate the evolution of the international market for steam coal, the coal type used for electricity generation. The main focus is on future trade ows and investments in production ...
2010| Clemens Haftendorn, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen
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Diskussionspapiere 959 / 2009
We provide the description and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set contains more than 80 countries and regions and covers 98% of world wide natural gas production and consumption. ...
2009| Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 931 / 2009
In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity ...
2009| Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Sophia Rüster, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 869 / 2009
This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the particularities of these benchmark price indices and their influence on the market of physical oil. This ...
2009| Daniel Huppmann, Franziska Holz
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Diskussionspapiere 845 / 2008
This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied ...
2008| Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen, Steven A. Gabriel
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Diskussionspapiere 823 / 2008
We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation ...
2008| Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen, Claudia Kemfert