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Diskussionspapiere 1177 / 2011

Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany

Do incumbents in an election have an advantage, and if so, are these advantages heterogeneous across parties or government and opposition? We first present a theoretical discussion on the possible heterogeneity of incumbency effects in a pure two-party system. Then, we estimate the incumbency effect for the direct district candidates in German federal and state elections using a regression discontinuity ...

2011| Florian Ade, Ronny Freier, Christian Odendahl
Diskussionspapiere 1147 / 2011

Incumbency as the Major Advantage: The Electoral Advantage for Parties of Incumbent Mayors

This paper provides empirical evidence on the party incumbency advantage in mayoral elections in Germany. Using a regression discontinuity design on a data set of about 25,000 elections, I estimate a causal incumbency effect of 38-40 percentage points in the probability of winning the next mayor election. The electoral advantage is larger for fulltime mayors, increasing in municipality size, independent ...

2011| Ronny Freier
Diskussionspapiere 1136 / 2011

When Can We Trust Population Thresholds in Regression Discontinuity Designs?

A recent literature has used variation just around deterministic legislative population thresholds to identify the causal effects of institutional changes. This paper reviews the use of regression discontinuity designs using such population thresholds. Our concern involves three arguments: (1) simultaneous exogenous (co-)treatment, (2) simultaneous endogenous choices and (3) manipulation and precise ...

2011| Florian Ade, Ronny Freier
Diskussionspapiere 1121 / 2011

Divided Government versus Incumbency Externality Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Multiple Voting Decisions

This paper explores the interdependency of political institutions from the voter's perspective. Specifically, we are interested in three questions: (1) Does the partisan identity of the local mayor influence the voter's decision in the subsequent town council election?; (2) Does this partisan identity influence in ensuing higher level elections?; and (3) Do voters condition their vote for the mayor ...

2011| Florian Ade, Ronny Freier
Diskussionspapiere 744 / 2007

"Marginal Employment": Stepping Stone or Dead End? Evaluating the German Experience

"Marginal Employment", i.e. employment at low working hours and earnings not covered by social security, has been gaining importance in the German economy over the past decade. Using a large newly available panel data set and statistical matching techniques, we analyse the effects of marginal employment on future individual outcome variables such as unemployment, regular employment and earnings. In ...

2007| Ronny Freier, Viktor Steiner
Diskussionspapiere 662 / 2007

'Marginal Employment' and the Demand for Heterogenous Labour: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-factor Labour Demand Model for Germany

We develop a structural multi-factor labour demand model which distinguishes between eight labour categories including non-standard types of employment such as marginal employment. The model is estimated for both the number of workers and total working hours using a new panel data set. For unskilled and skilled workers in full-time employment, we find labour demand elasticities similar to previous ...

2007| Ronny Freier, Viktor Steiner
SOEPpapers 530 / 2012

The Treatment Effect of Attending a High-Quality School and the Influence of Unobservables

This paper studies the effect of attending a high-quality secondary school on subsequent educational outcomes. The analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study in which we observe children when they make their secondary school choice (between ages 10-12) and later when they self-report on their intentions with regard to their further educational path (between ages 16-17). To ...

2012| Ronny Freier, Johanna Storck
Sonstige Publikationen des DIW / Aufsätze 2016

Political Culture Still Divided 25 Years after Reunification?

2016| Felix Arnold, Ronny Freier, Martin Kroh
Monographien

Incumbency, Divided Government, Partisan Politics and Council Size: Essays in Local Political Economics ; Dissertation

Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics, 2011, VII, 137 S. | Ronny Freier
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Regression Discontinuity Designs Based on Population Thresholds: Pitfalls and Solutions

In many countries, important features of municipal government (such as the electoral system, mayors' salaries, and the number of councillors) depend on whether the municipality is above or below arbitrary population thresholds. Several papers have used a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to measure the effects of these threshold‐based policies on political and economic outcomes. Using evidence ...

In: American Journal of Political Science 62 (2018), 1, S. 210-229 | Andrew C. Eggers, Ronny Freier, Veronica Grembi, Tommaso Nannicini
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