The world economy continues on its upward growth path, with global production expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year and slightly more than that in 2018. The economies in both the developed and the emerging countries are gaining momentum. Solid output growth is expected for the U.S. and euro area over the forecast period; China’s growth rates remain high, though they are declining somewhat; and ...
The world economy is gaining momentum after sluggish growth in the first half 2016 – which was primarily due to a weak expansion in the emerging markets – gave way to a slight acceleration. This trend is likely to continue, and will increasingly benefit the developed economies as well. The brightening labor market situation in advanced countries is leading to a higher level of consumer demand, which ...
Facing deflationary threats, the ECB has engaged in several forms of asset purchase programs to fulfill its mandate of maintaining price stability. A main objective of these programs is raising inflation expectations, as these are a main determinant of actual inflation. This study empirically evaluates the effectiveness of these ECB policies in raisinginflation expectations. The results suggest that ...
The Brexit vote has considerably increased economic uncertainty in Europe and beyond. It will likely affect economic performance and in particular investment in the euro area, which are both already relatively weak. The impact of this uncertainty shock on the euro area and the German economy is estimated with an econometric framework. A counterfactual analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated ...
As a result of Britain’s decision to leave the EU, global economic output is likely to grow at a somewhat slower pace than anticipated. The decision will have consequences for the UK and for the euro area in particular; this is also confirmed by simulations produced by the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM). An expected deterioration of economic relations—especially between the UK ...