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DIW Weekly Report 19/20 / 2020

Financial Market Participants Expect the Coronavirus Pandemic to Have Long-Lasting Economic Impact in Europe

Market participants are generally in agreement that the coronavirus pandemic will have a severe impact on the European economy, but it is difficult to predict the length and extent of the pandemic’s effects. However, using the yield curves of corporate bonds, we can reach some preliminary conclusions about the impact of the pandemic. The expectations of financial market participants are revealed in ...

2020| Stephanie Ettmeier, Chi Hyun Kim, Alexander Kriwoluzky
DIW Weekly Report 16/17/18 / 2019

A Stable and Social Europe: Fiscal Rules, a Stabilization Fund, Insolvency Rules, Gender Quota, Gender Pension Gaps, and Education: Reports

2019| Franziska Bremus, Marius Clemens, Marcel Fratzscher, Anna Hammerschmid, Tatsiana Kliatskova, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Claus Michelsen, Carla Rowold, Felix Weinhardt, Katharina Wrohlich
DIW Weekly Report 16/17/18 / 2019

Europe Must Focus on Its Strengths: Editorial

2019| Marcel Fratzscher, Alexander Kriwoluzky
DIW Weekly Report 7/8/9 / 2019

Italy Must Foster High Growth Industries

Italy has yet to recover from the economic consequences of the financial and sovereign debt crisis that began more than a decade ago. In addition to losing 1.4 million jobs across the manufacturing and construction sectors, new industries driving growth across the EU, such as knowledge-intensive services, are instead stagnating in Italy. Previous structural reforms focused on deregulating the labor ...

2019| Stefan Gebauer, Alexander S. Kritikos, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Anselm Mattes, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 38/39 / 2018

Policy Responses to Turkey’s Crisis: Independent Central Bank and International Credit

The presently tenuous situation in Turkey will worsen if the government does not take appropriate policy action. In view of foreign investors’ loss of confidence, the cost of external financing is likely to rise while consumption and investment will fall, and the Turkish lira would depreciate further. The influx of foreign capital would dry up as well. Conservative estimates show that the country’s ...

2018| Alexander Kriwoluzky, Malte Rieth
DIW aktuell 13 / 2018

Eurokrise: Austrittserwartungen aus dem Euroraum spiegeln sich in Zinsaufschlägen wider

Mit der schwierigen Regierungsbildung in Italien und dem auf Steuersenkungen ausgerichteten und europaskeptischen Programm der italienischen Koalition droht die schon überwunden geglaubte Krise im Euroraum wieder aufzulodern. Dies führt zu Risikoaufschlägen für italienische Staatsanleihen, die AnlegerInnen nicht nur für direkte Zahlungsausfälle, sondern auch für das Risiko, in einer anderen Währung ...

2018| Alexander Kriwoluzky, Christian Bayer, Chi Hyun Kim
Diskussionspapiere 1872 / 2020

Active, or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy in the Great Inflation

We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy regime as distinct, separately estimated, models. Rather, SMC enables us to estimate the DSGE model over its entire ...

2020| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Diskussionspapiere 1740 / 2018

The Term Structure of Redenomination Risk

This paper assesses redenomination risk in the euro area. We first estimate daily default-risk-free yield curves for French, German, and Italian bonds that can be redenominated and for bonds that cannot. Then, we extract the compensation for redenomination risk from the yield spreads between these two types of bonds. Redenomination risk primarily shows up at the short end of yield curves. At the height ...

2018| Christian Bayer, Chi Hyun Kim, Alexander Kriwoluzky
DIW Berlin - Politikberatung kompakt 134 / 2019

Happy Birthday? The Euro at 20

2019| Kerstin Bernoth, Franziska Bremus, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Henrik Enderlein, Marcel Fratzscher, Lucas Guttenberg, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Rosa Lastra
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Exit Expectations and Debt Crises in Currency Unions

We study a sovereign debt crisis in a small member state of a currency union. If the country exits the currency union, it may redenominate its liabilities and reduce the real value of debt through depreciation and inflation. We analyze formally how the anticipation of this possibility, “exit expectations”, impact the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis. First, we show that public debt accumulates ...

In: Journal of International Economics 121 (2019), 103253, 13 S. | Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Martin Wolf
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