48 Ergebnisse, ab 1
Diskussionspapiere 1876 / 2020

Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions

In proxy vector autoregressive models, the structural shocks of interest are identified by an instrument. Although heteroskedasticity is occasionally allowed for, it is typically taken for granted that the impact effects of the structural shocks are time-invariant despite the change in their variances. We develop a test for this implicit assumption and present evidence that the assumption of time-invariant ...

2020| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
Diskussionspapiere 1871 / 2020

Structural Vector Autoregressive Models with more Shocks than Variables Identified via Heteroskedasticity

In conventional structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models it is assumed that there are at most as many structural shocks as there are variables in the model. It is pointed out that heteroskedasticity can be used to identify more shocks than variables. However, even if there is heteroskedasticity, the number of shocks that can be identified is limited. A number of results are provided that allow ...

2020| Helmut Lütkepohl
Diskussionspapiere 1764 / 2018

Testing Identification via Heteroskedasticity in Structural Vector Autoregressive Models

Tests for identification through heteroskedasticity in structural vector autoregressive analysis are developed for models with two volatility states where the time point of volatility change is known. The tests are Wald type tests for which only the unrestricted model including the covariance matrices of the two volatility states have to be estimated. The residuals of the model are assumed to be from ...

2018| Helmut Lütkepohl, Mika Meitz, Aleksei NetŠunajev, Pentti Saikkonen
Diskussionspapiere 1762 / 2018

Constructing Joint Confidence Bands for Impulse Response Functions of VAR Models: A Review

Methods for constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions which are commonly used in vector autoregressive analysis are reviewed. While considering separate intervals for each horizon individually still seems to be the most common approach, a substantial number of methods have been proposed for making joint inferences about the complete impulse response paths up to a given horizon. ...

2018| Helmut Lütkepohl, Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, Peter Winker
Diskussionspapiere 1750 / 2018

Bootstrapping Impulse Responses of Structural Vector Autoregressive Models Identified through GARCH

Different bootstrap methods and estimation techniques for inference for structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identified by conditional heteroskedasticity are reviewed and compared in a Monte Carlo study. The model is a SVAR model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) innovations. The bootstrap methods considered are a wild bootstrap, a moving blocks bootstrap ...

2018| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
Diskussionspapiere 1729 / 2018

The Relation between Monetary Policy and the Stock Market in Europe

We use a cointegrated structural vector autoregressive model to investigate the relation between euro area monetary policy and the stock market. Since there may be an instantaneous causal relation we consider long-run identifying restrictions for the structural shocks and also use (conditional) heteroskedasticity in the residuals for identification purposes. Heteroskedasticity is modelled by a Markov-switching ...

2018| Helmut Lütkepohl, Aleksei Netsunajev
Diskussionspapiere 1707 / 2017

Bayesian Inference for Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified by Markov-Switching Heteroskedasticity

In order to identify structural shocks that affect economic variables, restrictions need to be imposed on the parameters of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Economic theory is the primary source of such restrictions. However, only over-identifying restrictions can be tested with statistical methods which limits the statistical validation of many just-identified SVAR models. In this study, ...

2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Tomasz Woźniak
Diskussionspapiere 1672 / 2017

Choosing between Different Time-Varying Volatility Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroskedasticity for choosing between different models for time-varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the selection criteria, using them is recommended because they can reduce the mean squared error of impulse ...

2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Thore Schlaak
Diskussionspapiere 1642 / 2017

Estimation of Structural Impulse Responses: Short-Run versus Long-Run Identifying Restrictions

There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR impulse response estimates based on long-run and short-run identifying restrictions and find that long-run ...

2017| Helmut Lütkepohl, Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, Peter Winker
Diskussionspapiere 1632 / 2016

Inference in Partially Identified Heteroskedastic Simultaneous Equations Models

Identification through heteroskedasticity in heteroskedastic simultaneous equations models (HSEMs) is considered. The possibility that heteroskedasticity identifies the structural parameters only partially is explicitly allowed for. The asymptoticproperties of the identified parameters are derived. Moreover, tests for identification through heteroskedasticity are developed and their asymptotic distributions ...

2016| Helmut Lütkepohl, George Milunivich, Minxian Yang
48 Ergebnisse, ab 1