-
DIW Discussion Papers 953 / 2009
Die aktuellen Finanzmarktturbulenzen wurden durch Entwicklungen im Immobiliensektor ausgelöst. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert dieser Beitrag den Zusammenhang zwischen den Immobilienpreisen und der Geldmengen- und Kreditvolumensentwicklung für den Zeitraum 1992 -2006 (westdeutsche Preisdaten) bzw. 1997 bis 2006 (ostdeutsche Preisdaten). Die Untersuchung konzentriert sich erstmals auf die Bundesrepublik ...
2009| Ansgar Belke
-
DIW Discussion Papers 952 / 2009
This paper examines the importance of different economic sentiments, e.g. consumer moods, for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) during the transition process. We first analyze the importance of economic confidence with respect to the CEEC's financial markets. Since the integration of formerly strongly regulated markets into global markets can also lead to an increase of the dependence ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Joscha Beckmann, Michael Kühl
-
DIW Discussion Papers 946 / 2009
The Google Insights data are a collection of recorded Internet searches for a huge number of the keywords, which are available since January 2004. These searches represent a kind of revealed perceptions of Internet users, which are a (possibly not entirely representative) sample of the general public. These data can be used to improve the short-term forecasts or nowcasts of various macroeconomic variables. ...
2009| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Maximilian Podstawski, Boriss Siliverstovs, Constantin Bürgi
-
DIW Discussion Papers 944 / 2009
This paper examines the significance of different fundamental regimes by applying various monetary models of the exchange rate to one of the politically most important exchange rates, the exchange rate of the US dollar vis-à-vis the euro (the DM). We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we come up with interesting properties of our ...
2009| Joscha Beckmann, Ansgar Belke, Michael Kühl
-
DIW Discussion Papers 943 / 2009
This paper deals with the impact of the $/€ exchange rate on German exports in the period from 1995Q1 to 2008Q4. Our main aim is to identify "pain thresholds" for German exporters. We rely on a non-linear model according to which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the EXR go beyond a kind of "play" area (analogous to a mechanical play). We implement an algorithm describing play-hysteresis ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Matthias Göcke, Martin Günther
-
DIW Discussion Papers 942 / 2009
This paper examines global (mature market) and regional (emerging market) spillovers in local emerging stock markets. Tri-variate VAR GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs) in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. The models capture a range of possible transmission channels: spillovers in mean returns, volatility, and cross-market GARCH-in-mean effects. ...
2009| John Beirne, Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, Nicola Spagnolo
-
DIW Discussion Papers 941 / 2009
The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004, and carries out "second-generation" tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Thouraya Hadj Amor, Christophe Rault
-
DIW Discussion Papers 940 / 2009
This paper reviews the main features of the banking and financial sector in ten new EU members, and then examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in these countries by estimating a dynamic panel model over the period 1994-2007. The evidence suggests that the stock and credit markets are still underdeveloped in these economies, and that their contribution to economic ...
2009| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Christophe Rault, Robert Sova, Anamaria Sova
-
DIW Discussion Papers 938 / 2009
In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real GRP for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed. ...
2009| Eric Girardin, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
-
DIW Discussion Papers 937 / 2009
The paper scrutinizes the role of wages and capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson model by international capital markets. The augmented Balassa-Samuelson model is linked to the monetary overinvestment theories of Wicksell and Hayek in order to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange ...
2009| Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl, Holger Zemanek