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The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

DIW Weekly Report 37 / 2019, S. 328-329

Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Stefan Gebauer, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak

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The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly less in the following two years. Serious risks are weighing on the outlook, as the trade conflicts could continue to escalate and spread to the EU and the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased.

Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Head of Forecasting Department in the Macroeconomics Department

Malte Rieth

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

Guido Baldi

Research Associate in the Macroeconomics Department

Hella Engerer

Research Associate in the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department

Topics: Business cycles

JEL-Classification: E32;E66;F01
Keywords: Business cycle forecast, economic outlook

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