The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Uncertainty Weighing on World Trade and Industry: DIW Economic Outlook

Abstract

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the economy in many countries. DIW Berlin is expecting global GDP to grow to 3.7 percent this year and to slightly less in the following two years. Serious risks are weighing on the outlook, as the trade conflicts could continue to escalate and spread to the EU and the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased.