Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by ...
(Discussion Paper Series / Centre for Economic Policy Research ; 9798)
| Kristin Forbes, Marcel Fratzscher, Roland Straub
DIW Economic Bulletin 9 / 2014
Despite the most recent period of calm on the financial markets, the long-term resilience of the European financial system is not yet assured, even several years after the financial crisis began. However, the stability of the financial system playsa crucial role for real economic development and consequently for growth and prosperity. The financial crisis has shown that stricter regulation is required ...
2014| Franziska Bremus, Claudia Lambert
Diskussionspapiere 1422 / 2014
Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Paneleconometric techniques ...
2014| Mondher Cherif, Christian Dreger
Diskussionspapiere 1365 / 2014
This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques accounting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the evidence is quite fragile for public and private investment flows. They enter a long run relationship only after ...
2014| Christian Dreger, Hans-Eggert Reimers
Diskussionspapiere 1364 / 2014
How do banks choose their debt maturity structure when credit markets are subject to information frictions? This paper proposes a model of equilibrium maturity choice with asymmetric information and endogenous roll-over risk. We show that in the presence of public signals about firms' creditworthiness (credit ratings), firms choose to expose themselves to positive roll-over risk in order to minimize ...
2014| Philipp König, David Pothier
DIW Wochenbericht 7 / 2014
Seit vier Jahren kämpfen die Staaten des Euroraums gegen die Hinterlassenschaften der schweren Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise an. Aber noch immer steigen die Schuldenquoten. Für die Krisenstaaten des Euroraums wurde zwar mit Rettungspaketen und Niedrigzinsen "Zeit erkauft". Aber solange sich die anderen Einflussgrößen nicht positiver entwickeln, bleibt es ungewiss, ob die momentane Beruhigung der Euro-Verschuldungskrise ...
2014| Marius Kokert, Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan
DIW Wochenbericht 7 / 2014
Diskussionspapiere 1362 / 2014
A canonical two country-two good model with standard preferences does not address three classic international macroeconomic puzzles as well as two well-known asset pricing puzzles. Specifically, under financial autarky, it does not account for the high real exchange rate (RER) volatility relative to consumption volatility (RER volatility puzzle), the negative RER-consumption differentials correlation ...
2014| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Michael Donadelli, Alessia Varani
Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...
Journal of Forecasting
33 (2014), 1, S. 15-31
| Helmut Herwartz, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Diskussionspapiere 1409 / 2014
This paper provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian “province”) in Italy. A comprehensive dataset is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique ...
2014| Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Stefano Di Colli, Roberto Di Salvo, Juan Sergio Lopez