A canonical two country-two good model with standard preferences does not address three classic international macroeconomic puzzles as well as two well-known asset pricing puzzles. Specifically, under financial autarky, it does not account for the high real exchange rate (RER) volatility relative to consumption volatility (RER volatility puzzle), the negative RER-consumption differentials correlation ...
We analyze the transmission of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the U.S. and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial ...
We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty — approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts — to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods are determined and subjected to panel logit regressions conditioning on macroeconomic indicators and expectation ...
Trotz der jüngsten Beruhigung an den Finanzmärkten ist das Finanzsystem in Europa auch mehrere Jahre nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise nicht nachhaltig krisenfest. Die Stabilität des Finanzsystems spielt aber eine zentrale Rolle für die realwirtschaftliche Entwicklung und damit für Wachstum und Wohlstand. Die Finanzkrise hat gezeigt, dass die Regulierung verschärft werden muss, um das Bankensystem stabiler ...
This paper studies the association between a country’s level of financial development and firms’ employment growth. We employ an incomplete contract model for evaluating this association. The model proposes that a high level of financial development affects the employment of firms with low managerial capital negatively, while firms with high managerial capital benefit from a more developed financial ...
Member states of the euro area have been struggling with the legacies of the severe financial and economic crisis for four years now. But debt ratios are still rising. Negative primary balances, low growth, and low inflation do not allow for a recovery similar to the one in the US after the Second World War. Between 1946 and 1953, the US was able to almost halve its debt with no haircuts. The crisis ...