Thema Finanzmärkte

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB ist im Moment unverzichtbar: Fünf Fragen an Dorothea Schäfer

International Capital Markets Structure, Preferences and Puzzles: The US-China Case

A canonical two country-two good model with standard preferences does not address three classic international macroeconomic puzzles as well as two well-known asset pricing puzzles. Specifically, under financial autarky, it does not account for the high real exchange rate (RER) volatility relative to consumption volatility (RER volatility puzzle), the negative RER-consumption differentials correlation ...

Finanzielle Fragmentierung: Wie lässt sich die Abhängigkeit der Kreditrisiken im Banken- und Staatssektor reduzieren?

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

We analyze the transmission of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the U.S. and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial ...

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

Local Banking and Local Economic Growth in Italy: Some Panel Evidence

This paper provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian “province”) in Italy. A comprehensive dataset is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique ...

Wie kann systemisches Risiko beschränkt werden?

Die Regulierung von Risiken auf Ebene der einzelnen Bank reicht nicht aus, um die Stabilität des Finanzsystems zu sichern – das ist eine der Hauptlehren aus der Finanzkrise. Lag der Fokus der Regulierungs- und Aufsichtsbehörden bislang auf der Stabilität einzelner Finanzinstitute, so hat sich gezeigt, dass auch systemische Risiken beachtet werden müssen. Um das Finanzsystem krisenfester zu machen, ...

Ein fiskalischer Versicherungsmechanismus für Europa

Während die europäische Bankenunion seit dem Finanzministertreffen im Dezember 2013 konkrete Züge annimmt, bleiben die Vorschläge der Politik zur Gestaltung einer Fiskalunion vage. Hingegen werden in der Wissenschaft und politischen Beratung mittlerweile mehrere Modelle eines finanzpolitischen Transfersystems für die Europäische Union oder die Eurozone diskutiert. Diese Zusammenfassung erklärt, warum ...

Cross-Border Banking, Bank Market Structures and Market Power: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence

Patterns in cross-border banking have changed since the global financial crisis. This may affect domestic bank market structures and macroeconomic stability in the longer term. In this study, I theoretically and empirically analyze how different modes of cross-border banking impact bank concentration. I use a two- country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks developed by De Blas and Russ ...

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by ...