Thema Finanzmärkte

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

On the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in the Euro Area

This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques accounting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the evidence is quite fragile for public and private investment flows. They enter a long run relationship only after ...

International Capital Markets Structure, Preferences and Puzzles: The US-China Case

A canonical two country-two good model with standard preferences does not address three classic international macroeconomic puzzles as well as two well-known asset pricing puzzles. Specifically, under financial autarky, it does not account for the high real exchange rate (RER) volatility relative to consumption volatility (RER volatility puzzle), the negative RER-consumption differentials correlation ...

Niedriger Leitzins: eine Chance in der Euro-Schuldenkrise

Seit vier Jahren kämpfen die Staaten des Euroraums gegen die Hinterlassenschaften der schweren Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise an. Aber noch immer steigen die Schuldenquoten. Für die Krisenstaaten des Euroraums wurde zwar mit Rettungspaketen und Niedrigzinsen "Zeit erkauft". Aber solange sich die anderen Einflussgrößen nicht positiver entwickeln, bleibt es ungewiss, ob die momentane Beruhigung der Euro-Verschuldungskrise ...

Die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB ist im Moment unverzichtbar: Fünf Fragen an Dorothea Schäfer

Asymmetric Information and Roll-over Risk

How do banks choose their debt maturity structure when credit markets are subject to information frictions? This paper proposes a model of equilibrium maturity choice with asymmetric information and endogenous roll-over risk. We show that in the presence of public signals about firms' creditworthiness (credit ratings), firms choose to expose themselves to positive roll-over risk in order to minimize ...

Credit Rating Agency Downgrades and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by ...

Neue Banken- und Fiskalarchitektur für Europa: Krisen vermeiden, statt sie nur zu bewältigen

Durch die europäische Schuldenkrise wurde offensichtlich, wie wichtig eine Vertiefung der europäischen Integration ist. Wichtige Reformen zur Weiterentwicklung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion sind zwar auf den Weg gebracht, aber häufig unvollendet. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Entscheidungen zur Bankenunion und diskutiert, wie die Entkopplung des Teufelskreislaufs zwischen Staats- ...

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

We analyze the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative ofcontagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the United States and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been ...