Thema Finanzmärkte

In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles: Cross-Sectional Evidence

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross-section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years, alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...

Sovereign Risk, Interbank Freezes, and Aggregate Fluctuations

This paper studies the bank-sovereign link in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up with strategic default on public debt. Heterogeneous banks give rise to an interbank market where government bonds are used as collateral. A default penalty arises from a breakdown of interbank intermediation that induces a credit crunch. Government borrowing under limited commitment is costly ex ante as bank ...

Neue Banken- und Fiskalarchitektur für Europa: Krisen vermeiden, statt sie nur zu bewältigen

Durch die europäische Schuldenkrise wurde offensichtlich, wie wichtig eine Vertiefung der europäischen Integration ist. Wichtige Reformen zur Weiterentwicklung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion sind zwar auf den Weg gebracht, aber häufig unvollendet. Dieser Artikel gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Entscheidungen zur Bankenunion und diskutiert, wie die Entkopplung des Teufelskreislaufs zwischen Staats- ...

Credit Rating Agency Downgrades and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crises

Capital Controls and Macroprudential Measures: What Are They Good For?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias and endogeneity; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by ...

Banking Union and Bank Regulation: Banking Sector Stability in Europe

Despite the most recent period of calm on the financial markets, the long-term resilience of the European financial system is not yet assured, even several years after the financial crisis began. However, the stability of the financial system playsa crucial role for real economic development and consequently for growth and prosperity. The financial crisis has shown that stricter regulation is required ...

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

We analyze the transmission of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the U.S. and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial ...

Local Banking and Local Economic Growth in Italy: Some Panel Evidence

This paper provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian “province”) in Italy. A comprehensive dataset is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique ...

Wie kann systemisches Risiko beschränkt werden?

Die Regulierung von Risiken auf Ebene der einzelnen Bank reicht nicht aus, um die Stabilität des Finanzsystems zu sichern – das ist eine der Hauptlehren aus der Finanzkrise. Lag der Fokus der Regulierungs- und Aufsichtsbehörden bislang auf der Stabilität einzelner Finanzinstitute, so hat sich gezeigt, dass auch systemische Risiken beachtet werden müssen. Um das Finanzsystem krisenfester zu machen, ...

Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Forecasters and the Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles

We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty — approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts — to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods are determined and subjected to panel logit regressions conditioning on macroeconomic indicators and expectation ...