Thema Konjunktur

Reale Rückgänge werden wir wohl in allen Baubranchen sehen: Interview

Construction Boom Coming to an End; Change in Policy Strategy Needed

Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...

Inequality over the Business Cycle: The Role of Distributive Shocks

This paper examines how wealth and income inequality dynamics are related to fluctuations in the functional income distribution over the business cycle. In a panel estimation for OECD countries between 1970 and 2016, although inequality is, on average countercyclical and significantly associated with the capital share, one-third of the countries display a pro- or noncyclical relationship. To analyze ...

A Lasting Crisis Affects R&D Decisions of Smaller Firms: The Greek experience

We use the prolonged Greek crisis as a case study to understand how a lasting economic shock affects the innovation strategies of firms in economies with moderate innovation activities. Adopting the 3-stage CDM model, we explore the link between R&D, innovation, and productivity for different size groups of Greek manufacturing firms during the prolonged crisis. At the first stage, we find that the ...

Crisis Stress for the Diversity of Financial Portfolios - Evidence from European Households

In this paper, we investigate how European households changed the diversity of their financial portfolios in response to the Great Financial and the subsequent European Debt Crisis. For this purpose we apply a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach estimated as a correlated random effects (CRE) model to six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that households ...

The EU Sustainable Finance Taxonomy and Its Contribution to Climate Neutrality

The EU Taxonomy is the first standardised and comprehensive classification system for sustainable economic activities. It covers activities responsible for up to 80% of EU greenhouse gas emissions and may play an important role in channelling investments into low-carbon technologies by helping investors to make informed decisions. However, especially in transition sectors much depends on the stringency ...

Das sind die größten Wirtschaftsrisiken 2023

Dieser Kommentar erschien am 27. Dezember 2022 in der WELT. Treffen die Konjunkturprognosen für 2023 zu, dann steht Deutschland und dem Rest Europas kein schlechtes Jahr bevor. Erwartet wird ein Jahr der Stagnation trotz Kriegs in der Ukraine, Energiekrise und geopolitischer Konflikte. Dieses Bild ignoriert jedoch zwei wichtige Aspekte: Es gibt fünf große Risiken, die jedes für sich genommen die deutsche ...

DIW-Konjunkturbarometer Dezember: Aussichten hellen sich etwas auf

Das Konjunkturbarometer des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin) liegt im Dezember fast unverändert bei 82,8 Punkten. Nach dem relativ großen Sprung nach oben im Vormonat stabilisiert sich das Barometer damit auf dem höheren Niveau. Von der neutralen 100-Punkte-Marke, die ein Quartalswachstum von 0,3 Prozent anzeigt, ist der aktuelle Barometerwert aber nach wie vor weit entfernt. Die ...

Was ist INFLATION? | DIW Glossar

Präsentation des Finanzstabilitätsberichts der Bundesbank

Vorstellung des Finanzstabilitätsberichts 2022 Wir bitten um Anmeldung per E-Mail an: akegel@diw.de