We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. ...
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. It compiles a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. The main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...
Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker’s toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent policy setting and a preference for policy smoothing. These conditions allow negative rates to signal policy ...
Manche Faktoren sind temporär, aber die Erwartungen können trotzdem so stark sein, dass die Inflation weiter hoch bleibt.
Vorstellung des Finanzstabilitätsberichts 2021 Wir bitten um Anmeldung per E-Mail an: akegel@diw.de