In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to ...
Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting ...
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic long-run levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic longrun levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
The DIW Europe Lecture is a lecture series by leading policy-makers and academics on the future of Europe. The series aims at fostering and informing the debate on key European policy issues, and at bringing this debate to the heart of Germany's policy-making in Berlin. The President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will look at Europe’s economic and financial future: which...
Bislang wurden Verteilungswirkungen in der Debatte über geldpolitische Entscheidungen wenig Beachtung geschenkt. Vom Mandat der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) werden sie auch nicht umfasst. Angesichts der lang anhaltenden äußerst lockeren Geldpolitik und des im Januar 2015 gestarteten umfangreichen Ankaufprogramms für Staats- und Unternehmensanleihen stellt sich jedoch...
The ECB has engaged in several forms of unconventional monetary policy since 2007. This report documents empirically that the implemented measures were effective. In a counterfactual analysis, the report simulates the effects of an unconventional monetary policy shock of -10 basis points to euro area sovereign yields, consistent with the effect of the first announcement of the Expanded Asset Purchase ...